The poll by Lord Ashcroft suggests John Swinney‘s party would clinch 47 seats at the next General Election while Labour would get just 31 – a loss of 380.
The results put Zack Polanski’s Green Party in the lead on 21.4% of the vote, though because of the first past the post system this would leave them as the only third biggest party with 119 seats.
Reform would take the most seats with 174 on 20.9% of the vote, while the Tories would secure 168 from 20.5%.
The survey was taken between March 26 and 30.
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Polanski said on Twitter/X: “Remarkable poll this evening from Lord Ashcroft. The Greens in joint 1st place.
“We are replacing Labour and ready to take on Reform in the local elections on 7th May.”
The poll put Keir Starmer‘s party on 17%, with more than 5000 people asked to give their voting intention.
It is yet another poll which shows support for Reform waning, with their backing dropping by 1%.
‼️BREAKING | Greens surge into LEAD (1st!!)
🟢 Grn: 21.4% (+2.1)
➡️ Ref: 20.9% (-1.4)
🔵 Con: 20.5% (+0.2)
🔴 Lab: 17.0% (-0.4)
🟠 Lib: 9.2% (-1.9)
Poll: @LordAPolls, 26-30 Mar (+/- vs 19-23 Feb) pic.twitter.com/oDVw4cDaFC
— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️ (@LeftieStats) April 5, 2026
Lord Ashcroft noted that Polanski’s positions on wealth and windfall taxes, alongside introducing a higher minimum wage, proved to be very popular with the public.
He said: “The Greens are enjoying something of a moment. However the numbers are calculated, there is no denying the remarkable progress they have made under Zack Polanski.
“I found big majorities in favour of a wealth tax, higher taxes on energy companies and a £15 an hour minimum wage.
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“Like other pollsters I have found Reform UK’s overall lead narrowing since the start of the year. That’s not to say their bubble has burst, simply that their seemingly inexorable rise has abated, at least for now. Global events might be part of the reason.”
In the latest Holyrood poll by Norstat, Reform also saw a slump in their support as they fell to third place behind the SNP and Labour.
Backing for Reform fell to 15% in constituencies and on the regional list, both down four points compared with the last Norstat poll seven weeks ago.