The ability to stop shipping using one of the world’s most important trading arteries is a potent weapon that Iran wants to turn into a long-term strategic gain. Alongside demands for the closure of US bases in the region, for reparations for war damage, a return to the enrichment of uranium and the lifting of sanctions, Iran wants to institutionalise its control of the Strait.
Doing a deal on the Strait will be every bit as difficult as discussing Iran’s nuclear capacities. Iran’s nuclear programme was intended to produce more options to deter enemies, whether or not they took the step of turning enriched uranium into a bomb. It turns out that closing the Strait of Hormuz is way cheaper, potentially devastating to the economies of neighbours and enemies, and much easier to implement.
During the two-week ceasefire already agreed, Iran is insisting that any ship that wants to transit the Strait of Hormuz will need the permission of Iran’s armed forces, or it will be attacked and destroyed.
It has charged some of the few vessels that have been allowed through millions of dollars in tolls. If that continues it would be able to raise billions, a prospect that horrifies Gulf Arab states.
To double the challenges for the world economy, the Houthis, Iran’s ally in Yemen, showed during the Gaza war that they can use their firepower to block Bab al-Mandab, the narrow strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. The Saudis are pumping oil that would normally be exported through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz through a pipeline to their Red Sea ports, where it can be shipped to Asia. That would stop if the Houthis blocked the exit south through Bab al-Mandab.