The Republican Senate primary in Louisiana has become a mess.

The two-term incumbent senator is at risk of not even making the primary runoff, and he’s fuming at the Senate Republican establishment for not helping him enough.

President Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidate has been unable to convert that golden-ticket endorsement into a definitive lead.

And a third candidate who said he ignored entreaties to drop out from people close to Trump has emerged as a real threat to win.

The uncertainty and chaos within just five weeks to the May 16 primary has caught the White House, Trump allies and the Republican establishment by surprise, throwing a wrench in what was supposed to be a low-drama contest. Republicans aren’t going to lose the Louisiana Senate seat, but it’s definitely not going the way GOP power players thought it would.

Let’s get into it.

Former Rep. John Fleming (R-La.), a co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus, is pulling a significant chunk of the vote in public and private polling, muddying what should’ve been a glide path to the Senate for the Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.).

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) voted to convict Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, which was always going to be a problem in a Republican primary. Cassidy and his allies have been dumping money on TV ads hitting Letlow.

It’s highly unlikely any candidate will clear 50% in the GOP primary, meaning this race is headed to a June runoff. Polling shows all three relatively close together. Letlow has a lead in two recent independent polls.

At this point, Republican insiders believe any of the three candidates could advance.

Yet those same Republicans are convinced that either Letlow or Fleming would beat Cassidy in a runoff.

“You know we’ve led — not by a lot, it’s a tight race, right — but we’ve led the entire time,” Fleming told us.

State of race. Cassidy is furious at the NRSC and Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s political machine because he feels they haven’t fully supported his reelection bid. Thune fundraised with Cassidy in January in Baton Rouge, raking in over $650,000 at the event. The NRSC has also cut video ads featuring Cassidy.

But in a tense call with the NRSC, Cassidy said the committee wasn’t spending enough on his behalf during the primary. NRSC Executive Director Jennifer DeCasper, in a response that included profanity, shot back that Cassidy shouldn’t have voted to convict Trump, according to multiple sources familiar with the call.

The NRSC and Cassidy’s campaign both declined to comment.

Cassidy isn’t short on funds. The HELP Committee chair and his allied groups began the year with a collective $26 million in the bank. They’ve blanketed the airwaves with a slew of ads slamming the 45-year-old Letlow, accusing her of failing to properly disclose her stock trading while in office and pursuing DEI policies as an official at a Louisiana university. “Liberal Letlow” and “Pelican State Pelosi” have become go-to lines for Cassidy.

Cassidy has spent $5.1 million on ads, per AdImpact. His super PAC, Louisiana Freedom Fund, has spent a whopping $10 million on ads so far.

Many of Cassidy’s ads depict him as close to Trump, a clear attempt to obscure the reality that he voted to convict the president.

Letlow has spent $2.5 million on ads and has her super PAC, The Accountability Project. Letlow and her allies have been touting the Trump endorsements. Her team believes once they educate more voters that she is Trump’s pick, Letlow will surge.

“Julia Letlow has a commanding lead in this race despite the nearly 10 million dollars spent against her by Trump-impeacher Bill Cassidy,” Letlow spokesperson Katherine Thordahl said. “At this point, the only question is whether Bill Cassidy, who is consistently polling in third place, will even make the runoff.”

Louisiana moved to close its primaries in 2024, a change that doesn’t help Cassidy.

For years, the state had a jungle primary that pooled candidates from all parties into one race. That benefited Cassidy because liberal and moderate voters could join Republicans in supporting him, making the politics of his impeachment vote easier. Now, each party holds its own primary.

Plenty of GOP voters are ready to ditch Cassidy. Letlow’s problem is that despite having Trump’s backing, she’s sharing the anti-incumbent voting bloc with Fleming. Case in point: her super PAC is airing an ad hitting Fleming on immigration in order to bring down his vote share.

Letlow also waited months to launch her Senate run, doing so only in January. Fleming entered the race in December 2024. Fleming is currently Louisiana’s state treasurer.

Fleming factor. Fleming, 74, said he was repeatedly contacted in late January and mid-Febuary by figures “in Trump’s orbit” to see what it would take to get him out of the race.

“I was contacted twice by a high-level person at the White House, again, asking if there’s anything they could do, anything they could offer that would get me to drop out. And I said no, of course, diplomatically said no,” Fleming told us.

Fleming said Louisiana GOP voters see Cassidy and Letlow as “too Washington” when compared to him. Fleming served in the House from 2009 to 2017. He ran for Senate in 2016 but finished well back in the Republican primary.

The White House denies that they made any offer to Fleming. Fleming was asked if he was prepared to stay in the race after Letlow got in and had the president’s endorsement. Fleming said yes, according to a Trump source familiar with the conversation.

The White House’s view, at least now, is that they simply want Cassidy out of the Senate. They don’t care if it’s Letlow or Fleming who does that.