Reform UK are forecast to win 19% on both votes. While this is from a baseline of 0% at the previous Holyrood election, it still marks a substantial gain on the 7% they won in Scotland at the 2024 general election, as well as exceeding the 15% they took as the Brexit Party in the 2019 European elections.
The Greens have a median projected regional share of 13%, a gain of five points from their joint-best result in 2021. This is alongside a constituency share of just 2%, largely on account of the party only fielding candidates in six constituencies.
The Lib Dems are projected to win 10% of both votes, which represents gains of three and five points respectively, as well as their best result at Holyrood for 19 years.
Regional results
The SNP’s domination of the constituency seats means that, on our model’s figures, they are entitled to just one of the regional “top-up” seats, despite being set to win the most regional votes in all eight regions. This support ranges from 37% in Central Scotland and Lothians West to 25% in Edinburgh and Lothians East.
Instead, 20 of the regional seats are projected to be allocated to Reform UK, with 15 going to Labour, ten to the Greens, six to the Conservatives and four to the Lib Dems. Though, as with the constituency seats, some of these allocations are down to wafer-thin margins.
Support for the Greens is particularly strong in the Glasgow and Edinburgh and Lothians East regions, where one in five voters (20-21%) intend to cast their regional vote for the party, relative to 9-12% in other regions. Reform UK’s vote is almost a mirror image of this, standing at just 14-15% in the regions of Scotland’s two biggest cities, but as high as 24% in the South Scotland region.
Despite the decline in their support, Labour’s historic areas of strength in Scotland can still be seen, with the party continuing to do better in the so-called ‘central belt’, where the party is currently on 18-19% of the regional vote, compared to 11% in the North East and just 7% in the Highlands and Islands.
Likewise, the Conservatives are still set to do better in North East Scotland (12%) and South Scotland (11%), while Lib Dem support is disproportionately found in the Highlands and Islands, where they are projected to win 20% of the regional vote.