Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, in March. (Altaf Qadri/AP/File)
April 15, 2026 8:20 AM, EDT
| Updated: April 15, 2026 10:16 AM, EDT
NEW YORK — The U.S. stock market is flirting with a record April 15 following its big rally over the last two weeks as hopes have built that the global economy can avoid a worst-case scenario because of the U.S.-Iran war.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% in early trading and was on track to edge past its all-time high, which was set in January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 91 points, or 0.2%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3% higher.
Treasury yields were also holding relatively steady in the bond market as mediators moved closer to extending the ceasefire between the United States and Iran and restarting negotiations before the agreement expires next week.
After falling nearly 10% below its record at one point, a drop steep enough that Wall Street calls it a “correction,” the S&P 500 has roared 10% higher since late March. That move was mostly on expectations for calming tensions to come in the war and a resumption of the full flow of oil from Persian Gulf producers to customers worldwide through the Strait of Hormuz.
If those expectations get dashed, which has happened before in the war, stocks could easily resume their fall. Oil prices drifted up and down on April 15 and showed that caution remains in financial markets.
The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, rose 0.2% to $94.94. That’s still well above its roughly $70 price from before the war, though it’s down from its $119 peak when worries about the fighting have been at their heights.
But if U.S.-Iran talks do happen and if they are successful, the war could end up being only a temporary setback for the global economy instead of the harbinger of a new normal of very high oil prices and inflation. And that in turn could allow investors to return their attention to what matters most for the stock market: money.
Through all the day-to-day noise that can affect investors’ opinions, stock prices tend to move with the direction of corporate profits over the long term. And positive trends there had stock markets worldwide doing well before the war began. Analysts also see continued growth ahead, for now at least.
Bank of America climbed 2.5% April 15 after saying it made $8.6 billion in profit during the first three months of the year. That’s up 17% from a year earlier and more than analysts expected.
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CEO Brian Moynihan said the bank saw signs of a “resilient American economy,” including solid spending by U.S. consumers. Trends were encouraging enough that the bank set aside less money to cover potential credit losses during the quarter, $1.3 billion, than the $1.5 billion it did a year earlier.
Morgan Stanley jumped 5.1% after the investment bank likewise delivered a better-than-expected quarter of results.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed in Europe following modest gains in Asia.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury remained at 4.26%, where it was late April 14.
AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Matt Ott contributed to this report.