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“It’s wide open!”

That’s everyone’s favorite saying when the NBA postseason begins, and in recent years, it’s been more true than ever. Favorites have been unusually vulnerable in the post-pandemic NBA, with teams seeded fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth all making at least the conference finals, the eighth-seeded Miami Heat winning the Eastern Conference in 2023 and the fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers being one half away from winning the 2025 title.

The long-term average is that fewer than four teams without home-court advantage will prevail out of 15 series, but the last six seasons have been different: 31 non-home-court teams have advanced, or about 5.2 per year. That includes five teams without home-court advantage winning series last season and 18 occurrences in the last three years.

For some weird reason, the second round has been mayhem. Teams with home-court advantage in the conference semifinals have won just nine of the last 24 series! Last season, two 60-win teams (Cleveland, Boston) were bounced in the second round, and a third (Oklahoma City) needed seven games to survive.

Nonetheless, this time around, I expect things to be a bit chalkier. Two teams dominated the Western Conference all season, and the odds would seem to heavily favor one or the other being our eventual champion. And historically, the rule of thumb has held for 45 years now with one glaring exception in 1995: If you aren’t seeded third or better and didn’t win at least 52 games with at least a plus-3.0 margin (pro-rated for shortened seasons), you’re not winning a title.

That leaves six qualifiers this season: the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. It’s fair to say that it would be a huge surprise if a team other than these six was our eventual champ, with perhaps a slight wink to the Cleveland Cavaliers as a dark horse. Recent injuries to the Los Angeles Lakers only make that more true.

Our first round might be a drab one indeed: A potential banger between the Lakers and Houston Rockets now seems to be a mismatch due to injuries to Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, while at least three other series feature overwhelming talent disparities. Nonetheless, things could once again get mighty interesting once the second round rolls around, and the West finals might be epic.

Before we look at my crystal ball, let’s do a quick performance review on my 2025 picks: I got six of eight first-round series right, and I got the “Thunder win it all part” right … but yikes, that second round killed me. Nine correct bracket lines out of 15 isn’t bad when the chalk outcome was also nine, but let’s see if we can improve on that.

East first round

(1) Detroit vs. (8) Charlotte/Orlando

Charlotte is good enough to win a series against a team of Detroit’s caliber. I just don’t know if the Hornets are built to beat a team of Detroit’s style. The Pistons won all three regular-season meetings, and only one of them was close. You can see why when you line up the teams.

Charlotte doesn’t have a great matchup for Cade Cunningham, and its lack of size is a problem on the defensive glass against the Pistons’ mashers. The Pistons also have enough quality defenders to handle Charlotte’s spaced-out, shooting-heavy lineup without breaking down. That’s when the starters are on the floor; once the benches come in, the Pistons have a huge advantage. I’m hoping the Hornets advance anyway, because these two teams do not like each other.

As for Orlando … sigh. The Magic have been a crushing disappointment this season, but if they survive Charlotte, they have a chance to make things interesting. The Magic split their four meetings with Detroit, even winning in Detroit in November despite shooting 5 of 30 from 3, and their size and theoretical upside of the starting group give them a puncher’s chance. Orlando is finally at full strength with Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs back, and if it can keep its top eight players on the floor, it can have solid lineups.

While I think Detroit is getting short shrift and people have been slow to realize just how good this team is, I also think the Pistons are going to get a real series in Round 1. Pick: Pistons in 6 against either

(2) Boston vs. (7) Philadelphia (Preview)

Philly played three tough games against Boston in the opening weeks of the season and won two of them, even with Joel Embiid only playing a major role in one of the three. In the four meetings this season, Philadelphia has been able to slow Boston’s offense enough to give itself a chance, despite some fairly ugly shooting numbers on the Sixers side. The return of Paul George also adds another plus wing defender to help deal with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

That said, without Embiid and with Tatum added to the Boston side, the talent disparity is real. This would be a favorable matchup for Philly if Embiid were playing and Tatum were still convalescing, but given the opposite scenario, it feels like a long slog of Philly guards trying to score against loaded-up defenses. Pick: Boston in 5

The Hawks have struggled to defend Karl-Anthony Towns in the past. (Lucas Boland / Imagn Images)

(3) New York vs. (6) Atlanta (Preview)

The Hawks took off once they added CJ McCollum at midseason, posting a ridiculous plus-20.3 net rating with their new starting five. Even allowing for some less-than-daunting opposition on their late-season schedule, that’s exclamation-point worthy. What’s perhaps more sustainable is that, even over the full season, the quartet with their other four starters together (Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels and Onyeka Okongwu) was plus-7.0 per 100 possessions.

That stands in stark contrast to the underwhelming plus-2.8 mark posted by the Knicks’ core four of Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. The Knicks have bigger names, but the Hawks’ main guys have been better.

So why am I picking New York to prevail? Two reasons: the bench and rebounding. New York’s bench units have been a massive advantage all season, with Mitchell Robinson, Miles McBride, Jose Alvarado and Landry Shamet all making major contributions. Meanwhile, Robinson and Towns dominate the boards, while the Hawks’ non-Okongwu units have been decimated on the glass.

Atlanta’s second group, meanwhile, is a work in progress at best. Jonathan Kuminga has shown flashes of reliable scoring in the non-Johnson minutes, but otherwise, things look rough. Gabe Vincent is getting double-digit minutes with a job description of “Just don’t doom us,” and there is no backup center to speak of until Jock Landale returns from a late-season ankle sprain. Zaccharie Risacher and Corey Kispert are also exchanging DNPs depending on who looked worse in the previous game.

Things are so desperate that I wonder if the Hawks might unearth Buddy Hield, who was mysteriously placed in witness protection upon arriving from Golden State at the trade deadline but made seven 3s and scored 31 points in 21 minutes in the season finale in Miami when he finally got a chance to play.

The last meeting between these teams was a 108-105 Knicks win in Atlanta in early April that had playoff vibes. The Knicks’ starters won their minutes, but the Hawks won the rebound battle, even with Robinson grabbing 12 in 19 minutes.

Nonetheless, I think this is a decent matchup for New York. The Hawks have always struggled to deal with Towns, who has a major size edge on Okongwu, and Anunoby is a tremendous foil for Johnson, Atlanta’s do-everything star. The Knicks will survive and advance. Pick: Knicks in 6

(4) Cleveland vs. (5) Toronto (Preview)

The Cavaliers are a confounding team: immensely talented on paper yet underachieving through most of the season. Subtract all the games against tankers, and Cleveland looked shaky even after acquiring James Harden at the trade deadline and returning Max Strus’ Headband from injury. While the starting five Cleveland rolls out will be the best it’s had all season, much of the same can be said for Toronto, the team that won all three regular-season meetings.

Here’s the thing: Cleveland’s lineup is pretty top-heavy, with starter-laden units still having at or near double-digit net rating advantages all season. In contrast, Toronto’s starting group just wasn’t all that good. The Scottie Barnes-Immanuel Quickley-Brandon Ingram trio got 1,203 minutes together, and their net rating was a measly plus-3.9. The Raptors’ biggest advantage was Jamal Shead and Sandro Mamukelashvili playing against second units, but that doesn’t scale to a playoff game where the bench guys get fewer minutes.

In contrast, the Cavs got a lot of negative minutes from players who either aren’t on the team anymore or will play microscopic roles in this series, although their compulsion to make sure Dennis Schröder gets 20 minutes a night has me a bit concerned.

Historically, No. 5 seeds win nearly half the time in the first round, and underdogs with a regular-season series advantage also fare much better. I definitely consider this one “live” as far as upset possibilities, but the talent disparity is just too large. Pick: Cavs in 6

West first round

(1) Thunder vs. (8) Warriors/Suns

Oklahoma City played Phoenix five times in the regular season, thanks to the NBA Cup, and lost to the Suns twice; however, one of those was the Suns obliterating Payton Sandfort and Brooks Barnhizer in a meaningless 82nd game.

Phoenix is an interesting matchup because the Suns have multiple defenders to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — fellow Canadian Dillon Brooks likely gets the first shot before Ryan Dunn and Jordan Goodwin take turns — and because Phoenix’s 3-point shooting is a nice antidote against a Thunder team that surrenders 3s to force turnovers. Phoenix should also be close to full strength by Sunday, with Grayson Allen (who had one of the league’s most underrated seasons) likely returning from a hamstring injury.

Even with that, the Suns lost to Oklahoma City by 49 and 27 in the regular season, and the Thunder — low-key wracked by injuries during the regular season — should also be back at full strength for the playoffs.

If it’s Golden State, good night and good luck. The Thunder won all four meetings against the Warriors by 24, 12, 37 and seven. The version of Golden State with Steph Curry and Kristaps Porziņģis both playing is the best it can muster with Jimmy Butler sidelined, but the Warriors’ inclination toward reckless turnovers doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the handsy Thunder. Pick: Thunder in 4 against Golden State; Thunder in 5 against Phoenix

(2) San Antonio vs. (7) Portland (Preview)

Don’t be surprised if this is fairly interesting. All three regular-season games between these teams were competitive, although Victor Wembanyama missed two of them. The Blazers even won at San Antonio despite myriad injuries leaving them with just four players available who will get run in this series (Caleb Love, Sidy Cissoko, Rayan Rupert and Yang Hansen combined to play 75 minutes that night).

Portland is at full strength, has elite defenders up and down the roster and threw a huge wrinkle at the Phoenix Suns in crunch time Tuesday with a Jerami Grant-at-center lineup that the Suns couldn’t stop. (The “Stop playing Scoot Henderson” adjustment also helped.) Deni Avdija was a monster against the Suns, a huge, bruising forward who relentlessly attacks off the dribble and presents a tricky matchup for the Spurs’ mostly smaller wings. And the Blazers also have enough size to at least have a chance against Wembanyama.

The Blazers’ undoing will be a lack of shooting, an especially notable weakness against a team that makes the rim area a no-go zone, and their still-glaring inability to score in the non-Avdija minutes. But Portland is already playing with house money just by being here. Pick: Spurs in 5

Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves are no strangers to Denver in the postseason. (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)

(3) Denver vs. (6) Minnesota (Preview)

On paper, this is the best first-round series, with two high-quality, mostly healthy teams that already have significant history. In reality, I’m not sure how hard this will be for Denver.

The Nuggets won three of the four meetings between the teams this season despite navigating numerous injuries along the way, and they seem much more fit and ready for this series than the wobbling Wolves. On the other hand, Minnesota has made the conference finals in consecutive seasons, beating Denver to get there in 2024 and arriving as the sixth seed in 2025. Obviously, some historical precedents favor the Wolves.

Nonetheless, this might be the most complete team that the Nuggets have ever put around Nikola Jokić, including a bench that doesn’t immediately wilt the second he checks out of a game. Minnesota’s depth seems shakier this time around, and the difference in starting lineups is profound: The Wolves’ go-to quintet was plus-7.9 per 100 this season; Denver’s was a staggering plus-13.5.

I’m excited to see what this looks like on the court, but in the end, it might be a bit easier for Denver than people expect. Pick: Nuggets in 5

(4) L.A. Lakers vs. (5) Houston (Preview)

The Lakers’ playoff hopes went up in smoke when Dončić and Reaves both suffered injuries in early April that will likely keep them out of this series. L.A. still has home-court advantage and can likely conjure up at least one night of throwback LeBron James heroics combined with baffling Houston fourth-quarter offense. However, the Lakers’ injury losses expose one of the NBA’s worst benches. The Rockets will have a massive on-court talent advantage, and it will be a major story if they fail to advance. Pick: Rockets in 5

East semifinals

(1) Detroit vs. (4) Cleveland

I like this Pistons team a lot, but I do not love this matchup. Cleveland was really comfortable playing against the Pistons all season, hammering them in Detroit in November and then playing three close games later in the season. The season series was 2-2 with a plus-18 Cavs scoring advantage, and that’s with Donovan Mitchell missing two of the games.

The overwhelming question for the Pistons: How do they score against Cleveland’s Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen frontcourt? Detroit’s offensive rating wasn’t above the league average in any of the four games and averaged a measly 104, which is five points worse than Brooklyn’s 30th-ranked attack.

The Cavs’ four best players only played seven games and 92 minutes together but had an eye-popping plus-26.7 net rating in that time. If you’re looking for a larger sample, the Mitchell-Allen-Mobley grouping got 36 games together and sported a solid plus-10.0 rating. That’s worse than Detroit’s mark with its top players, but not dramatically: The Cade Cunningham-Jalen Duren-Ausar Thompson grouping was a plus-12.3.

Detroit’s main advantage in the regular season over Cleveland was in the minutes for players who will be non-factors in the playoffs. Most of the bad players the Cavs cycled through while they were going through injuries and trades likely won’t see the floor; similarly, Detroit has the best third center in the league, but he might not play a minute.

Between that and the terrible matchup for Detroit, I’m going to go out on a limb and take the Cavs. Pick: Cleveland in 6

(2) Boston vs. (3) New York

The Knicks were comfortable enough with the idea of playing Boston that they didn’t bother tanking down to the fourth seed. I get it: New York won three of four against the Celtics and beat them when it mattered last year, and in contrast, the Pistons hammered the Knicks three times this season.

This matchup favors New York in some ways, as the Knicks’ two big wings are capable of guarding Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown one-and-one without needing much help. New York can also hurt Boston from the 3-point line; everyone except Mitchell Robinson is a threat, with subs Miles McBride and Landry Shamet being big volume guys.

Both teams take and allow tons of 3s, so expect “shooting variance” to be a big story in this series. It was last year when the variance gods favored the Knicks, but I’m not betting on a repeat. Boston has more frontcourt athleticism than a year ago and shooting and ballhandling everywhere. While some of their record this season came about due to remarkable health from the non-Tatum players, the fact that they won so much in Tatum’s absence is a remarkable indicator of the rest of the roster’s quality. Pick: Celtics in 6

Reed Sheppard has given Houston a boost as a starter. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)

West semifinals

(1) Oklahoma City vs. (5) Houston

Houston took the Thunder to overtime in Oklahoma City on opening night and beat the Thunder in February (albeit sans Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), but those results flatter the Rockets. Houston’s lack of shooting seems to make it ill-equipped to handle a Thunder defense that pressures the ball relentlessly but gives up a lot of 3s in the process.

Houston’s strategy of throwing up whatever and then crashing the boards took a major hit with Steven Adams’ season-ending injury, and while adding Reed Sheppard to the starting group upgraded a dire spacing situation (Houston is 17-4 with him as a starter), the Rockets still seem very short on ballhandling and spacing.

That’s a particular problem against a team as dominant as Oklahoma City was this year, even with several key players missing long stretches with injuries. Houston with Adams was an interesting proposition against the Thunder, because the Rockets might have been able to brute force their way to victory. In his absence, the Rockets lack the size and depth needed to offset their likely deficits in turnovers and 3s. Pick: Thunder in 5

(2) San Antonio vs. (3) Denver

Wemby. Joker. Get your popcorn, this is gonna be amazing.

Despite the disparity in records, I think the Nuggets are up for the fight in this one. Denver won three of the four meetings between these two teams, including an early-April overtime classic, and the eight-game difference in the standings stems largely from minutes given to replacement-level Denver scrubs who will see little to no daylight in this series. Four of Denver’s top six players missed at least 28 games, and Jokić missed 17, but that doesn’t matter in the playoffs; the lineup Denver sends out for Round 2 should be fully loaded.

That said, I still think San Antonio’s bench has the edge, and if Wemby and Joker play each other to a draw, that will end up as the deciding factor. Dylan Harper came on like gangbusters late in the season, Keldon Johnson might win Sixth Man of the Year, and Luke Kornet and Harrison Barnes are both better than any Denver sub save Peyton Watson, who hopefully will be back from a hamstring strain by the time the second round starts.

If you’re looking for a key stat, try this one: The Nikola Jokić-Jamal Murray-Aaron Gordon combo played 26 games together and had a net rating of plus-19.9 per 100 possessions, better even than nearly all of the Spurs’ best lineup combos. On the other hand, San Antonio’s 12 most common lineup trios all had double-digit net rating advantages, and the Wembanyama-Stephon Castle duo wasn’t exactly chopped liver at plus-17.0.

That takes us back to my presumption for this series: a slight edge for Denver when it’s starters vs. starters, but a major advantage for the Spurs once subs start mixing in. I think this goes down to the wire and will unconfidently take San Antonio. Pick: Spurs in 7

East finals

(2) Boston vs. (4) Cleveland

There’s a bit of a rock-paper-scissors situation in the East. I think Detroit would be a very tough matchup for New York and probably also a difficult one for Boston. But the Pistons have to get past the Cavs first, and I’m not sure they will.

A Boston-Cleveland matchup, alas, plays into the Celtics’ hands. They can leave Evan Mobley alone at the 3-point line on defense, and they have too many big wings for the Cavs to handle on offense. The Celtics won all three head-to-head meetings this season (although each was before the James Harden trade), and only one of the three was close.

On the other hand, this gives us the matchup we thought we were betting on a year ago, before Indiana and New York upended the entire East bracket. Maybe this time around, the two most talented teams on paper in the conference can actually survive through to the conference finals?

Perhaps a better question for an itchy Cleveland team with major luxury-tax issues going forward: Is making the conference finals good enough? Or, would a defeat before the NBA Finals portend another shakeup in the offseason? Pick: Celtics in 5

Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs have been one of the NBA’s most surprising teams this season. Is an NBA Finals run on the horizon? (Grant Burke / NBAE via Getty Images)

West finals

( 1) Thunder vs. (2) Spurs

The Spurs gave Oklahoma City a ton of trouble this season, winning four of the five meetings between the two teams with a plus-5.2 net margin. If a team is going to take out Oklahoma City, it’s this one.

I can’t quite pull the lever for San Antonio yet, though. Not when Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle are going through their first playoffs. Not when the other three starters have never played in the second round. Not when their coach is also going through this for the first time. And not when I go back through the data on how awesome the fully loaded version of the Thunder can be.

The beginning of the season is the time when everyone is trying the hardest, which is why those games often have predictive value in the spring even as rosters change, injuries happen and schemes shift. The Thunder began the season an amazing 24-1, even though their second-best player (Jalen Williams) missed their first 19 games. Even as Williams missed 49 games, Isaiah Hartenstein missed 35, Alex Caruso missed 26, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed 14 and Chet Holmgren missed 13, the Thunder kept on rolling.

Getting Williams back up to playoff speed remains on the to-do list — he’s played more than 28 minutes in a game once since Jan. 15 — but Oklahoma City should have two soft early rounds to ramp him up. Meanwhile, the Thunder have three centers they can throw at Wembanyama, a handsy defense that will only be lightly threatened by the Spurs’ iffy 3-point shooting and backcourt weapons for days. One key subplot, in fact, is that the Thunder hardly need Lu Dort against the Spurs and could likely tilt his minutes toward the more offensively prolific Ajay Mitchell or Isaiah Joe.

I think this will be a fantastic series that will test both superstars (Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander) to their limit, and that it’s likely to decide the ultimate champion. Wemby’s time is coming … but not quite yet. Pick: Thunder in 7

NBA Finals

Oklahoma City vs. Boston

My fourth straight year picking Boston to make the NBA Finals! This was also the matchup I had for the crown a year ago (the two previous years, I picked Celtics-Nuggets).

Boston’s shooting and 3-point heaviness can take advantage of some of the Thunder’s defensive tendencies, especially because the Celtics aren’t careless with the ball. The two sides split a pair of closely contested meetings in March, with the standout feature being Boston winning the possession battle in both games. If the Celtics can do that consistently against Oklahoma City, their shooting is deadly enough to put the Thunder in trouble.

Nonetheless, I’m betting on the Thunder’s hands to cause more havoc over the course of a long series. Plus, as long as Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren are both in the mix, Oklahoma City should have an advantage on the boards.

With Jayson Tatum, the Celtics are a worthy adversary. The fact that they shed heaps of talent in the offseason, lost Tatum for most of the season and still came back to this level is extraordinary.

Ultimately, however, I still lean on the Thunder’s talent. Even while wading through all their injuries, they won 64 games with the eighth-best scoring margin of all time. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been dominant in clutch situations this season, gives them a go-to weapon in their rare close games. Pick: Thunder in 6