Diplomacy hasn’t always been like this. Over the past week, Iran and the US have been playing a game of peace-talks chicken with one another over whether or not they would even turn up to negotiations in Islamabad, aimed at turning a temporary ceasefire into a lasting peace agreement.
In the end, neither party even showed up to the talks. Predictably, both sides blamed the other for making unreasonable demands, but the lack of action spoke louder than words ever could. Donald Trump’s apocalyptic threat to end Iranian civilisation might have secured a ceasefire deal, but it has done nothing to bring the US and Iran any closer to agreeing a framework for an actual end to the conflict.
Trump insists that the US must be allowed to remove all radioactive material from Iran and secure a promise that the country won’t try to enrich uranium for decades, and says the US won’t pay Iran any money for this.
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Iran says it expects a deal in which it receives compensation for abandoning enrichment, and wants to formalise its control over shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz – which would represent a huge step forward on its position before Trump launched this conflict. Sanctions relief would also be essential for this kind of deal, if only because western companies could not pay Iran’s toll on the Strait without it.
More than that, both sides need to be able to claim that they’ve “won” the conflict. Trump’s pride cannot withstand a defeat, and the President is notorious for his thin skin. He has bragged endlessly about how much better he is at fighting wars than his predecessors and how he could have won Vietnam, launching his Iran offensive while still on a high over an apparent success in Venezuela.
Iran’s new rulers, meanwhile, are still consolidating their hold on power – with several factions still jockeying for a position, complicating peace talks. They are unable and unwilling to accept a deal that looks like a compromise, or which hands the hated USA a victory. An unstoppable force is meeting an immovable object.
The fact an agreement was not even close as the latest deadline for a deal approached was no surprise, given these complications – but Trump’s reaction was. In a post on Truth Social, the President appeared to offer an indefinite extension to the ceasefire “until such time as their proposal is submitted”, seemingly giving Iran as long as it likes to offer a peace deal on its own terms.
On the face of it, this is an extraordinary offer for Trump to make, given he claimed the war had been won weeks ago, and that peace would take the form of “unconditional surrender” from Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is now doubly closed, blockaded by both Iran and the US, even as countries around the world deplete their oil reserves. If it is not reopened soon, a major global recession is inevitable.
US forces patrol the Arabian Sea near MV Touska on Monday after firing upon the Iranian-flagged vessel the US accused of attempting to violate its naval blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz (Photo: US Navy via Getty)
Time is not on the USA’s side. Iran is a dictatorship, and one which has endured extreme hardship. Hundreds of thousands of its people died during the Iran-Iraq war. It has endured sanctions for decades. Earlier this year, the regime massacred tens of thousands of its own civilians. Iran’s new rulers don’t have to worry about midterms later this year.
Trump does. If the Democrats take both chambers of Congress, his presidency is, in many ways, already over. Moreover, the US and its allies have higher expectations. Higher petrol prices are already eating away at Trump’s approval, and far worse economic pain is to come if the Strait is not reopened soon. America’s allies in the Middle East are running low on food and essential supplies. Europe and Asia will soon run short of fuel. Trump is playing a waiting game he cannot win.
Why would the US President so casually accept an indefinite ceasefire on Iran’s terms? One possibility is that he is lying – and this thought has occurred to Iran’s leaders, who have publicly accused him of making a false offer while he prepares a surprise offensive.
The other possibility is that Trump simply doesn’t have many other options left. Once you have threatened to obliterate a civilisation, you have little room left for escalation. There is no threat Trump can make against Iran that he hasn’t already made. This is the risk of calling out Trump for “chickening out” here – what would we rather he do instead?
There is a real risk that the President could be goaded into engaging in war crimes that would be senseless, not just for their violence and destruction, but which also would get us nowhere nearer to actual peace.
Perhaps this is just a familiar Trump story – another Taco Tuesday. But increasingly, it looks like something different: Donald Trump is trapped in a mess of his own making, and no one around him has any clue as to how to find a way out.