A look at what Middlesbrough need in the final week of the season to win promotion
Tommy Conway of Middlesbrough celebrates scoring(Image: Richard Lee/Shutterstock)
Middlesbrough beat Watford 5-1 at the Riverside on Saturday, keeping their automatic promotion dreams alive.
While even Kim Hellberg admits that finishing second will be difficult, and the play-offs are the most probable outcome for Boro, they have taken their fight for automatic promotion to the final week of the season, and possibly the final day.
That’s because both Millwall and Ipswich slipped up with draws this weekend, while Southampton were not in Championship action and instead pushed Manchester City hard in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley, with ex-Boro man Finn Azaz scoring a superb goal.
So what would need to happen for Boro to completely rip up the script and secure automatic promotion? Here are the final week permutations in the race for automatic promotion.
How it currently stands
Boro’s win over Watford moved them up to fourth in the table on 79 points, three points ahead of Southampton who have a game in hand. Ipswich and Millwall are one point ahead of Boro on 80 points, with Ipswich currently second thanks to their superior goal difference.
Boro’s goal difference was significantly helped by their 5-1 victory though. Ironically, many supporters could be heard groaning when the board went up at the Riverside to show six minutes added time. Boro made use of it to add a fifth goal.
And that fifth goal was significant because, for the time being, it leaves their goal difference at +25, which is one better than Southampton’s, but five worse off than Ipswich’s. Millwall’s is only +13.
The Championship table after Middlesbrough’s victory over Southampton
What Boro need on Tuesday evening
Boro aren’t back in action until next Saturday when they travel to Wrexham on the final day of the season. Whether there’s anything other than their final league position resting on that game depends completely on what happens on Tuesday evening at St Mary’s when Southampton host Ipswich.
Basically, Boro will head to North Wales next weekend with top two still a possibility as long as Ipswich don’t win that game.
A draw would see Boro heading into the final day two points ahead of Southampton, but two behind Ipswich. A Southampton win would see them drop to fifth on goal difference or goals scored, depending on by how many goals the Saints won by. But that Southampton win would see a dramatic final day set up. Four sides would head into that final weekend separated by just one point.
Boro final-day permutations
First things first, should it still be alive for Boro, then they would simply have to win at Wrexham. The goal difference advantage that Ipswich and Southampton have meant that, Kim Hellberg’s side would have to win.
But they’ll be requiring Ipswich and Millwall – and possibly Southampton if they beat Ipswich on Tuesday – to also drop points to have a chance. If Ipswich or Millwall win their final games against QPR or Oxford United, then Boro can’t finish second, no matter what they do at Wrexham.
Anything but a Millwall win against newly-relegated Oxford United would give Boro a chance to finish above Alex Neil’s side, however. Even if Boro only draw but Millwall lose, that would guarantee Boro a higher finish than the Lions due to goal difference.
In terms of Ipswich, at home against QPR, it depends on what Kieran McKenna’s side get in midweek. If they draw against Southampton, then their goal difference means Boro either need Ipswich to lose against QPR, or Boro have to win by five goals in the event Ipswich get another draw and the two sides finish on level points.
As for Southampton, if they beat Ipswich then they’ll move above Boro on goal difference or goals scored (a 1-0 win would leave both Southampton and Boro’s goal difference on +25, but Southampton have scored seven more goals than Boro).
If they were to only draw with Ipswich, however, Boro will be guaranteed a higher-placed finish, providing they win or better Southampton’s result on the final day. The Saints travel to Preston North End.
Final-day games analysed
It’s fair to say that Boro have the toughest assignment, with their opponents Wrexham the only one of the four opponents who have something to play for themselves.
Wrexham currently sit sixth in the table, occupying the final play-off spot on goal difference after Hull City were beaten by Charlton Athletic. They play Coventry City on Sunday and could extend their lead over Hull City and Derby County in the race for sixth with a result, but, unless they win by a big margin, they’ll still be needing a result against Boro to guarantee their play-off spot.
As for Boro’s rivals, however, they all have little else but pride to play for. Ipswich host QPR who sit 14th and are without a win in five matches heading into that game.
Millwall host Oxford, whose relegation was confirmed on Saturday, despite their 4-1 victory over Sheffield Wednesday. The U’s have won two of their last four games, albeit while still fighting relegation. How the disappointment affects them remains to be seen.
Finally, Southampton travel to Preston who, despite not having anything to play for, won an entertaining battle against Sheffield United on Saturday. It was only their second win in six games, however.
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