Much like a fever in the human body, the atmosphere can ‘feel’ these warmer waters and respond with altered weather patterns around the globe, the odds of which increase with greater ocean temperature anomalies.
How strong will this El Niño grow?
While some computer models insist that we’re on the cusp of a very strong and potentially impactful El Niño event, the experts urge caution.
SEE ALSO: Experts are changing how we measure El Niño and La Niña
“While confidence in the occurrence of El Niño has increased since last month, there is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño,” the CPC said in its outlook.
Here’s an example of that uncertainty.
The CPC predicts the odds of an El Niño or La Niña’s strength during three-month periods within each outlook. Forecasters expect similar odds of a moderate (22%), strong (30%), or very strong (37%) El Niño between November and January.
Our emerging pattern in the Pacific Ocean will have far-reaching effects around the world, including for Canada’s summer and the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
WATCH: El Niño’s role in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season