IIF: Dubai could enter a ‘small recession’ because of the Iran war

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Garbis Iradian, chief economist for Middle East and North Africa at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), says that the Iran war could cause Dubai to enter a temporary recession from lower tourism, trade, and FDI. The former IMF official adds that he does not expect a major recovery in international visitor numbers to Dubai in the second half of 2026, elaborating that it will take “several months” after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before tourist confidence is restored.