The thing is, even if we get back above $2.885, that doesn’t flip the script — it just sets the stage for maybe building a base. Only then could we start talking about a push toward $3.148 and maybe the 50-day up near $3.500. But that’s a big “if” with the way production and weather are lining up right now.
At 13:13 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $2.839, up $0.031 or +1.10%.
Cooler Weather and Record Output Keep Bulls on the Sideline
We’ve still got strong output — Tuesday’s Lower-48 dry gas production came in at 108.6 bcf/day, up more than 5% year-on-year. That’s near record highs, and with storage already north of 3,100 Bcf, it doesn’t take much imagination to see why sellers are still leaning on the market.
Weather’s no help for the bulls either. Updated forecasts cooled the outlook in the Northeast and Southeast for August 17–21, taking a bite out of late-summer cooling demand. Yes, there’s a warmer trend across the Midwest and Northeast for the following week, but it’s not enough to offset the near-term demand hit.
Supply Pressure Getting Backed Up in Storage
Here’s the thing — last week’s EIA report was technically bullish with just a +7 bcf injection versus the 5-year norm of +29 bcf. But the market’s looking past that because overall inventories are still nearly 6% above the 5-year seasonal average. Add in softer LNG flows (down 3.7% week-on-week to 15.4 bcf/day) and it feels like we’re heading into the shoulder season with more gas than we need.
Technicals Suggest More Work Before Bulls Can Take Control