How USA could play Iran in World Cup: Projecting the scenarios for 2026 FIFA knockout meeting

How USA could play Iran in World Cup: Projecting the scenarios for 2026 FIFA knockout meeting originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

There has been much tension in the lead-up to the 2026 FIFA World Cup about Iran coming to the United States for this summer’s competition.

Thanks to the U.S. military action on Iranian soil, which began in late February and early March, there has been growing tension between the two nations.

Set to compete alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand in Group G, Iran will play all three of their group stage matches on U.S. soil.

At first, there were questions about whether Iran would even participate in the tournament, hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Then, once that was confirmed, their ability to enter U.S. territory for their matches came into question.

With a tense agreement in place and the tournament ready to be contested on the field, the attention has shifted to the very real possibility of the two nations facing one another directly in competitive action.

The Sporting News brings you how this could take place, as the United States and Iran national teams could be on a collision course for knockout stage action.

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How USA could face Iran in FIFA World Cup knockoutsOption 1

There is one main way the United States could meet Iran in the 2026 World Cup knockouts:

USA finishes second in Group D

Iran finishes second in Group G

If this happens, the two sides would meet in the Round of 32 on Friday, July 3 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

It’s an entirely plausible outcome. The U.S. will be favored to win Group D, but only just, as Turkey represent strong opposition and would be deserving potential group winners.

Iran, meanwhile, are considered the third-best side in their group, but it would only take one potential upset for them to jump either Belgium or Egypt for the second spot. Belgium disappointed four years ago in Qatar and are prone to defeat, while Egypt struggle to score goals as they lean heavily on Mohamed Salah.

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Option 2

There are also a few other, less likely ways the two sides could face off in the knockout stage. The first one involves both teams winning their group and advancing to the Round of 16.

USA finishes first in Group D

Iran finishes first in Group G

Both teams win their Round of 32 match

This is considered unlikely as Iran would have to top both Belgium and Egypt to finish at the top of the group. Plausible, certainly, but not likely.

Option 3

There is one more long-shot possible outcome that would see the two teams meet later in the knockout stage. This would almost certainly require multiple upsets to occur.

USA finishes second in Group D

Iran finishes third in Group G, is drawn in Round of 32 to face the Group B winner in Vancouver on July 2

Both teams advance to quarterfinals

This is the final plausible outcome, but in truth, is not remotely likely to occur. The first roadblock to this taking place is Iran being drawn in a particular spot in the bracket after finishing third. There are over 400 possible outcomes for third-place finishers to be drawn in various spots in the knockout bracket, all depending on which eight group send third-place qualifiers to the Round of 32.

From there, both teams would have to progress to the quarterfinals. This would require the United States to, in all likelihood, defeat the Group J winner, the group with defending champions Argentina. It would also require Iran to beat both the Group B and Group K winners.

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