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The World Cup has its first big surprise result after Spain were held by debutants Cape Verde in their Group H opener.
Luis de la Fuente’s side might be many people’s pre-tournament picks for the trophy, but they struggled in front of goal against inspired opponents — who are 61 places below them in FIFA’s rankings.
Dermot Corrigan, Felipe Cardenas, Anantaajith Raghuraman and Emily Giambalvo break down the game’s talking points.
Is this the World Cup’s biggest shock?
It didn’t have the feel of Senegal 1-0 France in 2002, when the Africans upset the reigning world champions. It certainly wasn’t a giant-killing result such as North Korea defeating Italy in 1966. Even Saudi Arabia’s stunning 2-1 defeat of Argentina four years ago was more global-shaking than this.
But a 0-0 result and a first World Cup point for Cape Verde will be talked about for years to come. More importantly, it will be celebrated in Cape Verde well into the night.
But what we should first remind ourselves of is that Cape Verde won their group in African qualifying, which included victories over Cameroon, Angola and Libya. Moreover, they went undefeated at home.
The World Cup is a totally different animal, but the tournament debutants did not look intimidated by the quality of the European champions they faced — far from it.
Cape Verde were organized defensively in a traditional back five that at times included a midfielder to make it a wall of six defenders. With Lamine Yamal only fit enough to start on the bench, Spain lacked a cutting edge in that one-vs-one dynamic.
Cape Verde were also buoyed by the performance of the experienced goalkeeper Vozinha.
Cape Verde’s goalkeeper Vozinha made several key saves (Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images)
All of that, plus a desire and passion to represent their country proudly on the global stage, led to a more than respectable showing for a country whose population is approximately 530,000.
After Germany dismantled Curacao 7-1 and Sweden blew Tunisia away 5-1 in the previous matchday, Cape Verde has given its fans, and many watching neutrals, an unforgettable World Cup moment.
Felipe Cardenas
Cape Verde’s players celebrate a result many did not predict (Reuters/Claudia Greco)
Are Spain just not as good as we thought?
Spain’s openers at recent World Cups have been full of drama: a 5-1 defeat by the Netherlands in 2014, an exciting 3-3 draw with Portugal in 2018 and a 7-0 thrashing of Costa Rica four years ago in Qatar. Even in 2010, when they won the trophy, they started unexpectedly: losing 1-0 to Switzerland.
This year’s game had a dramatic finale, but a less than thrilling start. De la Fuente’s side dominated possession from the off, but their first shot on target took 20 minutes to arrive, with Pedri’s long-ranger not really testing Vozinha.
As the game progressed, Spain were getting some joy when new Real Madrid signing Marc Cucurella overlapped from left-back, leading to a chance which Ferran Torres smashed off the crossbar just before the break.
Meanwhile, their two wide-attacking stars of Euro 2024 were sat on the bench, with Yamal and Nico Williams both less than 100 per cent fit after recent muscle injuries.
There were cheers from the stadium when 18-year-old Yamal went out to warm up just after half-time, and it was a surprise that De la Fuente waited so long to make any substitutions with the game continuing at 0-0.
Yamal has not played for club or country since picking up the latest muscle problem with Barcelona on April 22, but De la Fuente decided the risk was worth it in the 71st minute. He almost immediately sprinted past his marker, opening space which led to a half-chance for fellow substitute Mikel Merino of Arsenal, but Cape Verde continued to look quite comfortable in defence. Williams was introduced in the 87th minute.
Yamal was introduced with just under 20 minutes to play (Roberto Schmidt / AFP via Getty Images)
The result raises some uncomfortable memories of Spain’s last two World Cup exits — they went out in the last 16 to hosts Russia in 2018 and Morocco in 2022 — after similar games where they dominated the ball but couldn’t find the net. By contrast, Lamal and Williams’ direct running and dribbling skills were key to their European Championship victory just two years ago.
But there is no need to panic yet, with six days until game two against Saudi Arabia, and then another six before Uruguay in game three. Still, it was clear that Spain really need to get Lamal — and Williams, too — back fully fit and firing as soon as possible.
Dermot Corrigan
How did the World Cup debutants keep Europe’s champions at bay?
Cape Verde were dynamic out of possession. They pressed in a 4-3-3 when Spain had the ball in their own half, shifted into a 4-5-1 mid-block when Spain brought it to midfield and dropped into a 5-4-1 protecting their own box when Spain entered the final third. When they won the ball back, it was not merely about hoofing it forward, but quick passes to release the pace they had in wide areas and upfront.
Spain’s only reliable strategy involved wide combinations, with Fabian and Pedri working in tandem with the wingers and full-backs. It led to a few promising openings, particularly when they found runs in behind on their left flank. Cucurella set up Torres for the best opening of the game, but he could only hit the crossbar. Pedri set up a similar high-quality opportunity from the left for Fabian, whose header was easy for the impressive Vozinha in Cape Verde’s goal.
Yamal’s introduction in the 71st minute for Gavi brought optimism, and within seconds it was evident why as he accelerated past two players. A minute later, he drew defenders to him to help Marcos Llorente set up Merino, who shot straight at Vozinha. Close to the end, a ‘trivela’ pass into Dani Olmo helped create an opening for Mikel Oyarzabal, whose shot was deflected behind.
But similar to their 0-0 draw with Egypt in a home friendly in March — and in an unsavoury callback to previous World Cups — De La Fuente’s side, without Yamal and Williams from the starting XI, were frustrated by a resolute, organised defence.
Anantaajith Raghuraman
What are Spain’s chances of winning Group H?
Following the draw, Spain’s chances of winning Group H decreased to 68 percent, from 81 percent, though they remain the favorites, according to our forecast.
Meanwhile, Cape Verde improved its likelihood of advancing significantly, to 52 percent from 32 percent. A win in either of its next two games — against Uruguay and Saudi Arabia — would essentially guarantee the tiny country a spot in the knockout rounds.
You can explore the possible paths to the knockout rounds for both teams (Spain, Cape Verde) with our interactive tool, or see the odds for all 48 teams here.
Emily Giambalvo