11:31 AM ET
4 Min AgoAnalysis: Why Potential Tropical Cyclone One faces a steep hill to become Tropical Storm Arthur
Now that the National Hurricane Center has officially designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One, all eyes are on whether it can successfully organize into Tropical Storm Arthur before running out of time.
The broad area of low pressure is currently sitting inland over South Texas, but it is forecast to slide northeastward and emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America tonight.
Once it hits the water, a meteorological tug-of-war begins between atmospheric ingredients favoring and hindering its development.
There are two major checkboxes working in the system’s favor. First, sea-surface temperatures in the northwestern Gulf are sizzling in the mid-80s, providing plenty of raw thermal energy to fuel the storm.
Second, favorable large-scale lift aloft—provided by its close proximity to a sharp dip in the jet stream—is helping to exhaust air away from the center, encouraging thunderstorms to bloom.
However, the system faces two massive roadblocks.
It is running into moderate wind shear, which acts like an atmospheric blender, tearing at the storm’s vertical structure and preventing it from stacking up efficiently.
Furthermore, its timeline is incredibly restricted. The system will only spend roughly 24 hours over the open ocean before steering currents drag it back inland over the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast on Wednesday night.Because of these limiting factors, there is absolutely no indication that this system will become a hurricane.
Even in a worst-case scenario, we are looking at a mid-tier tropical storm.
Regardless of whether it officially earns the name Arthur, the main impacts remain unchanged: peak wind gusts over 40 mph will lash the immediate coast from Matagorda Bay to central Louisiana on Wednesday, alongside a life-threatening flash flooding disaster across the wider Gulf Coast.