There are, I would imagine, fewer people in Ireland with greater name recognition than Dr. Tony Holohan, whose “star turn” as Ireland’s de facto covid supremo made his pronouncements the most-watched statements in Ireland for about two full years at the start of this decade.
Put simply: Everybody knows who he is.
Not only does everybody know who he is, but the vast majority of people who know who he is were introduced to him in the best possible light: As the sober, sombre, authoritative medic who was going to save them all individually, and the nation as a whole, from the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Few people in the history of this state have come to prominence in such a hailstorm of positive press coverage. And that coverage was not simply restricted to his role as Chief Medical Officer. It also focused on the tragic loss of his wife, his redemption story of finding new love, his second marriage, and so on. Now, it seems, some people want Dr. Tony to run for President.
He is clearly not opposed to the idea himself: Not only was an opinion poll “commissioned by his supporters” helpfully leaked to the Irish Times this morning (getting, at least for a while, top billing from the paper), but Dr. Tony also issued a helpful quote in support of his own candidacy, which he is still only “considering”:
Asked about the polling, Prof Holohan said he has been “greatly encouraged” by people contacting him and suggesting he should run.
“Some supporters arranged for this limited piece of research and I was aware it was taking place. The results are encouraging, especially as I have not declared my candidacy,” he said.
Prof Holohan said entering the race is a “significant decision” and he is consulting with family and friends.
Now here’s where it gets interesting: The poll in question – commissioned remember by the nascent Holohan campaign – found him coming in in fourth place with fifteen per cent of the votes. Ahead of him were declared candidates Mairead McGuinness (29%) and Catherine Connolly (22%) and undeclared candidate Mary Lou McDonald (20%). Holohan was in joint fourth place, tied with Bertie Ahern.
For some Joe Bloggs style candidate, that might indeed be an “encouraging” situation, as you might feel as if your candidacy was starting from a solid base of support with what the political professionals describe as “room to grow”. But how much room does Holohan, of all people, actually have to grow?
If anything, it’s all downhill from here.
This is a candidacy remember that is based above all on warm fuzzy memories of his leadership during covid 19 – leadership that was buttressed by warm and glowing media coverage and a complete lack of criticism or oversight by the main political parties, who by and large chose to hide behind Holohan and defer to him during the pandemic. They certainly were not competing with him during his nightly turns at the podium.
That will change, and inevitably, in a Presidential contest: He will no longer be immune to criticism from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, at least one of whom will be running candidates against him. Even the relatively supplicant Irish media will be compelled to take an interest in the shadier aspects of his record, not limited to matters like the contrived Trinity College job that he was once to move to before negative publicity forced his hand away from it.
And of course, this is no longer the scared country of Covid 19: And given the Government’s commitment to a “blame free” Covid enquiry, the good doctor may well find that many people out there welcome the opportunity to aggressively interrogate what he doubtless believes to be a spotless record.
In other words: Things are not going to get much better for Tony Holohan than they will be on the day he launches his campaign. If I were advising him, I would tell him those numbers are far from encouraging – they are a red flashing warning light.
Presidential campaigns have a record of humbling candidates with substantial merit and large egos. Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell imploded to a mere 7% of the national vote in his run. Senator David Norris went from front-runner to also-ran. Mary Davis was once regarded as a very solid candidate – and one with “room to grow” – and learned it is not as easy as it looks.
No: Holohan would be ill-advised on a personal level to pursue the Presidency. And if he does, he will find that it is a very different experience than it was being the anointed – and unquestioned – father of the nation during the pandemic.
Mind you, it might be a very entertaining spectacle for those of us who have long felt that his record during those years deserves slightly more scrutiny than it ever received.