Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed late on July 3 that Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka, contrary to all available evidence of the true extent of Russian advances in the city.
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Putin likely staged the meeting with his commanders late on July 3 at least in part to influence Western media coverage of the war into the weekend, particularly the July 4 holiday in the United States.
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The United States reportedly warned Poland that Russia is considering kinetic provocations against Poland and other NATO states.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating sharply fell in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline.
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The Russian government continues efforts to increase domestic fuel supplies amid intensifying gasoline shortages across Russia.
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Unknown actors reportedly detonated an explosive against a car carrying members of the Rylsk Raion, Kursk Oblast administration on July 3.
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Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces advanced on July 3.
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Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a long-range strike against Russian energy infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast.
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Russian forces launched two Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles and 105 drones against Ukraine overnight.
Russian forces conducted a series of long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 2 to 3.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on July 3 that Russian forces launched two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from the direction of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and 105 Shahed-, Gerbera-, and Italmas-type strike drones and Parodiya-type decoy drones from the directions of Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and occupied Donetsk City.[79] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed one Kh-59/69 cruise missile and 82 drones, that one Kh-59/69 missile and 21 drones struck 16 locations, and that drone debris fell on five locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian strikes damaged residential, agricultural, and energy infrastructure in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[80] The Ukrainian Energy Ministry and state energy operator Ukrenergo reported that Russian strikes caused power outages in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.[81]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on July 3 that the death toll from the July 2 Russian strikes on Kyiv City has risen to at least 30 people.[82]
Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian gas stations. Ukrainian officials reported on July 2 and 3 that Russian forces struck gas stations in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Sumy oblasts.[83] Russian forces are increasingly striking gas stations in Ukraine as part of a concerted strike campaign aiming to replicate the effects of Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s fuel infrastructure.[84]
Russia launched 2 Kh-59/69 missiles and 105 attack drones overnight. Ukraine said it downed or suppressed 83 targets, including 1 missile and 82 drones. One missile and 21 drones struck 16 locations, while debris fell at five others. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/OCCMEmZiSn
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) July 3, 2026
Brovdi reported on July 3 that Ukrainian forces struck the 35 kV electrical substation “Tarkhankut” near occupied Chornomorske (roughly 110 kilometers from the frontline) and another 35 kV electrical substation at the Tarakhankut Wind Farm near occupied Okunivka; the 110/35 kV electrical substation “Vypasne” in occupied Vypasne (either roughly 119 or 141 kilometers from the frontline); the 110 kV electrical substations “Bilohirsk,” “Saky,” “Tavriia,” “Mykolaivka,” and “Staryi Krym” in occupied Bilohirsk, Saky, Kliuchi, Vinnytske, and Staryi Krym respectively (roughly 217, 185, 208, 200, and 230 kilometers from the frontline); the 330/110 kV electrical substation “Zakhidno-Krymska” in occupied Karyerne (roughly 165 kilometers from the frontline); and the “Kliuchi” gas compressor station in occupied Kliuchi.[72] NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) data from July 3 shows heat anomalies near Chornmoroske, Bilohirsk, Saky, Vinnytske, Staryi Krym, Karyerne.[73] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on July 3 that Ukrainian forces struck a railway bridge over the Krasnohvardiiskyi Canal near occupied Kurman (roughly 160 kilometers from the frontline), an electronic warfare station near occupied Artemivka (roughly 120 kilometers from the frontline), and an electronic intelligence unit in Sevastopol.[74] The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reported on July 3 that Ukrainian forces struck the Saky military airfield for the second time since July 1, damaging seven aircraft and seven hangars for storing Su-30SM, Su-30, and Su-24 planes.[75] The SBU reported that Ukrainian forces also struck two Shahed drone hangars at the Hvardiiske airfield (either roughly 140 or 190 kilometers from the frontline). Satellite imagery published July 3 shows damage to two Shahed hangars at the Hvardiiske airbase.[76]
The Russian government continues efforts to increase domestic fuel supplies amid intensifying gasoline shortages across Russia. Reuters reported on July 3, citing three sources briefed on the matter, that Russia will begin importing jet fuel from Japan through several intermediary sources in the first half of July 2026.[19] Two unspecified sources told Reuters that intermediaries will load at least 200,000 barrels of jet fuel in Chiba, Japan in July, ship them to Yeosu, South Korea, load them onto another tanker, and pass them through a network of other traders before shipping the fuel to Russia. Reuters stated that the final destination for these jet fuel barrels is unclear. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed decrees on July 2 allowing the Russian government to temporarily reduce the sale requirement for Class 5 gasoline (Russia’s domestic standard for gasoline) on the exchange from 15 percent to 10 percent of production volume from July 1 to September 30 and allowing oil refineries to produce gasoline at the Euro-3 standard (below Russia’s usual standard).[20] These decrees together aim to increase the domestic availability of gasoline by loosening standards.
The Russian government’s attempts to increase the domestic flow of gasoline supplies thus far have failed to curb the increasing gasoline shortages across Russia, however. Local Telegram channels published footage on July 2 and 3 that shows long lines outside a Rosneft gas station near Chita, Zabaykalsky Krai.[21] Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai authorities briefly suspended the sale of gasoline at all gas stations in the city on July 3. Krasnodar Krai authorities acknowledged that eight gas stations were selling diesel, but none were able to sell gasoline.[22] Both Transbaikal and Krasnodar Krai have experienced gasoline shortages in the past few weeks, and these events underscore the severity of the fuel crisis in many areas of Russia.[23] ISW has observed reports suggesting that fuel shortages are affecting all areas of occupied Ukraine and all Russian federal subjects except Ingushetia, Chechnya, Kalmykia, Chukotka, and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug as of June 25.[24] Russian State Duma Deputy Vyacheslav Markhaev harshly complained on July 3 about the intensifying gasoline shortages in Russian federal subjects and occupied Crimea, blaming Russian authorities for failing to manage and prevent intensifying shortages.[25] Ukraine’s successful long-range strike campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure since March 2026 has decreased Russia’s ability to produce and refine oil, leading to intensifying gasoline and diesel shortages that the Russian government is struggling to mitigate.[26]
Geolocated footage published on July 3 shows a fire at an electrical substation at the Michurinskaya Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Belgorod City, Belgorod Oblast after a reported Ukrainian strike.[28] Additional footage published on July 3 shows a fire at the Yuzhnaya Electrical Substation in Belgorod City after a reported Ukrainian strike.[29] The Belgorod Oblast Operational Headquarters claimed on July 3 that Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike against Belgorod Oblast, causing a fire at an unspecified infrastructure facility and damaging energy infrastructure.[30]
“To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.”
Sun Tzu
The combat losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022 to July 3, 2026. pic.twitter.com/3ncWaZELbU
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 3, 2026
⚡️ RUSSIA’S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JUL 3, 2026
■ Combat engagements remain above the 7-day average, while casualties are slightly below it
■ 9th highest 🇷🇺 drone losses to date; losses of ground robotic systems surpass 1,800
■ Overnight attacks: drone interception rate could… pic.twitter.com/sfucxegoa1
— Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) July 3, 2026
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Operational update as of 22:00 on July 3, 2026, regarding the Russian invasion.
In total, 225 combat engagements have taken place since the start of this day. The aggressor carried out 57 airstrikes using 161 guided aerial bombs, deployed 6,393 kamikaze drones for attacks, and fired 2,194 rounds at the positions of our troops and populated areas.
In the Northern Slobozhanshchyna and Kursk sectors, six combat engagements with the enemy took place, three of which are still ongoing. The enemy carried out 47 shelling attacks on populated areas and our troops’ positions, one of which involved the use of a multiple launch rocket system.
Over the past 24 hours, in the Southern Slobozhansky direction, the enemy launched 13 assaults on the positions of our units in the areas of Khatne, Lyman, Starytsia, Artilne, and toward the settlements of Izbytske and Bochkove. Two firefights are still ongoing.
In the Kupiansk direction, the enemy launched three attacks toward Novoosynove and in the areas of Kolisnykivka and Novoplatonivka.
Nine attempts by the invaders to advance were repelled in the Lyman direction toward the settlements of Shyikivka, Stavy, Drobysheve, Dibrova, and in the Ozerny area.
In the Sloviansk sector, the Defense Forces successfully halted 24 attempts by the invaders to advance toward the settlements of Kryva Luka and Rai-Oleksandrivka, as well as in the areas of Riznykivka and Zakitne. Another engagement is currently ongoing.
In the Kramatorsk sector, Russian invaders launched one attack toward Malynivka.
In the Kostiantynivka sector, the Defense Forces repelled 24 enemy assaults in the areas around the settlements of Kostiantynivka, Ivanopillia, Illinivka, and Stepanivka.
The enemy carried out 17 attacks in the Pokrovsk sector. The occupiers attempted to advance in the areas around the settlements of Nikanorivka, Novooleksandrivka, Hryshyne, Rodynske, Kotlyne, Udachne, and Muravka, as well as toward the settlements of Ivanivka, Shevchenko, and Serhiivka. One attack is still ongoing.
According to preliminary estimates, 24 occupiers were killed and 10 wounded here today; one artillery system, six vehicles, and one enemy UAV command post were destroyed. Two artillery systems, one enemy vehicle, two electronic warfare systems, 28 personnel shelters, and four ammunition depots were damaged. A total of 206 unmanned aerial vehicles of various types were destroyed or neutralized.
In the Oleksandrivka sector, the enemy launched a single attack near the settlement of Berezove.
In the Huliaipole sector, the Defense Forces successfully repelled 15 enemy attacks in the Dobropillia area and toward the settlements of Rizdvyanka, Vozdvizhivka, and Charivne. Another engagement is still ongoing.
In the Orikhiv sector, our defenders stopped one enemy attempt to advance toward Pavlivka.
In the Dnipro sector, the enemy did not carry out any offensive operations.
In other sectors, there were no significant changes in the situation.
Let’s defeat the enemy and bring our Victory closer! Glory to Ukraine!
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed late on July 3 that Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka, contrary to all available evidence of the true extent of Russian advances in the city. 🧵(1/3)
Russian forces have achieved tactical gains within Kostyantynivka in recent… pic.twitter.com/vkxH75lcvl
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) July 4, 2026
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed late on July 3 that Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka, contrary to all available evidence of the true extent of Russian advances in the city. 🧵(1/3)
Russian forces have achieved tactical gains within Kostyantynivka in recent… pic.twitter.com/vkxH75lcvl
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) July 4, 2026
2/ The United States reportedly warned Poland that Russia is considering kinetic provocations against Poland and other NATO states.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating sharply fell in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline.
The Russian government continues… pic.twitter.com/I5cTJEYUrf
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) July 4, 2026
Polish outlet Onet reported on June 30, citing five sources in the Polish special services, the Polish Ministry of Defense (MoD), connected to Polish President Karol Nawrocki, and an ambassador to Poland from an unspecified NATO state, that US officials have been warning Polish officials that Russia could conduct a limited military provocation against NATO’s eastern flank that could include Poland.[6] The Polish sources told Onet that Russia would not launch a conventional full-scale invasion of Poland and offered several possible scenarios that Russia could choose to undertake, including drone strikes against critical infrastructure, “simulated airstrikes,” or a provocation that could involve Russian or Belarusian soldiers crossing the international border, after which the soldiers would only withdraw after negotiations. The sources stated that Russia wants to avoid a war with NATO and wants to deter NATO military support for Ukraine. A security services source from an unspecified Baltic state told the Telegraph on July 2 that Moscow is discussing plans for a possible provocation against the Baltic states and/or Poland and that Russia may claim after-the-fact that Ukraine conducted the provocation.[7] European security sources told the Telegraph that Russia prefers a provocation against Poland over a provocation against the Baltic states.
These reported US and European warnings are consistent with ISW’s long-term assessment that Russian operations such as drone and other aerial incursions, sabotage, electronic warfare (EW) interference, and overflights are part of Russia’s Phase Zero campaign.[8] These Phase Zero operations aim to set informational and psychological conditions for potential future provocations against NATO.[9] Though Polish sources offered possible scenarios to Onet, the nature, timing, and other details of a potential Russian operation against NATO’s eastern flank are unclear at this time.
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