Some voters fear Battle River—Crowfoot would be poorly represented by Pierre Poilievre as he has no connection to the riding and will be busy with his duties as Conservative Leader.Kyler Zeleny/The Globe and Mail
Long tables line the community hall in Round Hill, weighed down by hundreds of items of baking, flowers, crops, crafts and canned goods, all entered by locals hoping to snag a coveted prize ribbon at the Agricultural Society’s annual Bench Show.
But standing by the woodwork he was judging, self-confessed politics junkie Mathew Banack has the area’s imminent federal by-election on his mind. He’s sure Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre will win the Battle River—Crowfoot by-race when he and other voters head to the polls on Monday in Alberta.
Asked why, Mr. Banack pointed to the generationally conservative nature of the region.
“It didn’t matter who was on that ballot with that party, that was the vote,” he said.
Alberta by-election where Poilievre is running highlights need for electoral reform, protesters say
Mr. Banack, who lives in the small community roughly 30 kilometres from Camrose, Alta., thinks the riding would be poorly represented by Mr. Poilievre, given that the Conservative Leader has no connection to Battle River—Crowfoot and will be busy with his duties as party head.
“Then again, we’ve been represented by backbenchers for as long as I’ve been alive,” he said with a shrug. “Alberta is such a conservative stronghold, we are unlikely to see cabinet appointments because they don’t have to throw a bone to this part of the world to get Conservative seats.”
Set against the backdrop of a rising tide of Alberta separatism, Monday’s closely watched by-election will help decide Mr. Poilievre’s political fate.
A win would be his ticket back to Parliament. There he can finally debate Prime Minister Mark Carney, rather than sitting on the sidelines where he was relegated to after his bruising April loss to the Liberals in the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton.
Mr. Poilievre suffered a damaging loss to the Liberals in the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton in April, and Monday’s by-election could decide his political fate.Kyler Zeleny/The Globe and Mail
A by-election win doesn’t guarantee safety for Mr. Poilievre, however. He is set to face a leadership review in January, after his party failed to win the April election despite a strong lead in the polls throughout 2024.
But if history is anything to go by, his first steps back to Parliament Hill seem to be on solid ground.
Wood Buffalo
National Park
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ELECTIONS CANADA
Wood Buffalo
National Park
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ELECTIONS CANADA
Wood Buffalo
National Park
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ELECTIONS CANADA
Battle River—Crowfoot, with a population of around 110,000 people, is one of Canada’s safest conservative ridings; its former MP, Damien Kurek, won with almost 82 per cent of the vote, then gave up his seat to trigger the by-election.
The majority of voters who spoke with The Globe and Mail in the riding this week echoed Mr. Banack’s belief that Mr. Poilievre will win, regardless of their political stripe.
That Mr. Poilievre has dropped into the riding only to try and get back to Ottawa has rankled some voters; the topic was brought up repeatedly at candidate forums.
But it doesn’t bother Debbie Blouin, a Round Hill show committee member and keen gardener, who entered a collection of her flowers in the contest.
“He seems to be very visible in our area at this time. So I think he’ll work for us, but he’ll work for us in a different way than being here,” she said.
Camrose resident Ron Holt is hoping for a Conservative win despite concerns over Mr. Poilievre’s commitment to the riding.Kyler Zeleny/The Globe and Mail
Standing in the early evening sunshine Monday eating a strawberry ice cream, his dog Max by his side, Camrose resident Ron Holt said his hope for a Conservative win outweighs his concern that Mr. Poilievre doesn’t live in the riding.
“I have a gut feeling that he kind of wants what’s best for everybody. I can’t say the same for other candidates,” Mr. Holt said, adding, “I’ve got absolutely no use for Carney whatsoever.”
But Mr. Poilievre’s lack of connection to the region is what spurred independent candidate Bonnie Critchley to run. She lives in Tofield, Alta., roughly 50 kilometres north of Camrose.
“It’s just not right to have him come in as a parachute candidate like that,” Ms. Critchley said over peppermint tea at a local diner.
As far as she’s concerned, Mr. Poilievre “doesn’t give a rat’s backside” about the people of the riding.
“We deserve representation,” she said. “By taking a chunk of the vote share, I will tell him and the Conservative Party that we’re not impressed with this stunt.”
Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley was inspired to run due to Mr. Poilievre’s lack of connection to the region.Kyler Zeleny/The Globe and Mail
Liberal candidate Darcy Spady grew up in Three Hills, Alta., a town in the southwest of the riding, and wants to bring back centrist, progressive voices in the region.
Mention the fact that past election results point to the riding being solidly conservative, Mr. Spady counters with: “Is it super conservative? Or have they just not had the chance to vote a centrist option? There’s a lot of really reasonable people here whose voices have not been heard.”
An oil and gas guy who also farms, Mr. Spady is fully behind Mr. Carney. He acknowledged voters have been surprised that a petroleum engineer would run for the Liberals, but said, “this Prime Minister is acting like a real leader and helping our industry.”
Liberal candidate Darcy Spady says he wants to bring centrist, progressive voices back to the region.Kyler Zeleny/The Globe and Mail
Mr. Poilievre’s campaign team did not acknowledge multiple requests for an interview.
As she helped judge canned goods at the Round Hill show, Marj Nahirniak said Mr. Poilievre is “almost guaranteed” to win. And she hopes he does, so the constituency can have a well-known representative.
“Then it’s our responsibility to keep him in line. That’s what I think we then need to do – take a role in informing him of what’s happening and informing him of our needs.”
Marj Nahirniak, left, believes Mr. Poilievre will win, and wants a well-known representative for the constituency.Kyler Zeleny/The Globe and Mail
The eyewatering size of the riding – 52,589 square kilometres – will pose a challenge for the victor, as will its geographic and social diversity. It encompasses several First Nations, the Wainwright Canadian Forces Base, oil and gas development, rolling green farmland and scrubby desert badlands.
One uniting factor of the race, however, is widespread disdain for the longest ballot protest; the topic often elicited a deep sigh, an eyeroll or a scowl.
The Longest Ballot Committee has been signing up candidates in recent federal races to advocate for electoral reform. The ballot in the Alberta by-election will have a record 214 names; of those, 201 are linked to the committee.
Mr. Poilievre recently called it a “scam,” Mr. Spady labelled it “frustrating” and Ms. Critchley said it damages the democratic process and buries legitimate independent candidates like her under a landslide of names.
“It’s kind of ridiculous,” said Ms. Blouin at the Round Hill show. “I feel like they’re trying to make a joke out of it.”
No matter the results of Monday’s by-election, Mr. Poilievre is set to face a leadership review in January.Kyler Zeleny/The Globe and Mail
Then there’s Alberta separatism.
Premier Danielle Smith in June announced a series of public consultations about Alberta’s place in Canada, and a potential referendum question on separation has been referred to a judge for confirmation that it doesn’t violate the Constitution.
Several voters said separatism is a significant by-election issue, despite the fact Mr. Poilievre has said he is opposed to Alberta sovereignty.
“Whether Pierre gets this or not, we’re still going to fight for independence,” Adrian Dutkevich said. Sitting with friends who meet daily in a Camrose coffee shop, he added, “We have to break away from the east completely. They have never given us a good deal.”
On Monday evening, Don and Kim Miller cast their advance poll votes at the Agriplex in Killam, Alta., roughly 70 kilometres southeast of Camrose.
While by-elections typically don’t draw much public interest, Ms. Miller said she and many of her friends think this is one of the most important votes they’ll ever cast – and she’s gunning for a Poilievre victory.
“It‘s really not about him or this riding. It’s our country. It’s Alberta,” she said.
“If they somehow screw this up, and he doesn’t get in, that’ll be the end of this province in this country,” added Mr. Miller. “Because if this constituency isn’t conservative, what constituency is?”
Battle River—Crowfoot’s former MP, Damien Kurek, won almost 82 per cent of the vote before giving up his seat to trigger the by-election.Kyler Zeleny/The Globe and Mail