Seventeen months into Prime Minister Mark Carney’s mandate, as the Liberals continue to enjoy strong public support across the country, a series of senior staffing changes are underway in the Prime Minister’s Office and in the offices of several senior cabinet ministers. At the same time, MPs, ministerial staffers, and political insiders are increasingly speculating that a cabinet shuffle could take place before the House returns in September.

In interviews with The Hill Times, MPs and senior Liberals say that after Carney’s (Nepean, Ont.) successful party leadership win in March 2025, spending nearly a year-and-a-half as prime minister, and obtaining a majority government, he is now in a position to shape his long-term team in both the PMO and his front bench.

They said the prime minister has had sufficient time to assess his ministers’ performances in cabinet, the Commons, and House and cabinet committees, as well as progress made on key government priorities within their departments.

Several Liberal sources said that if Carney decides to shuffle his cabinet, it would likely take place before next month’s cabinet retreat. As of last week, the retreat’s exact date had not been publicly announced, although senior staff expect it to be held around Aug. 10.

Tom Pitfield, left, with CBC News’ Aaron Wherry, at the Liberal policy convention back in April in Montreal. Pitfield’s appointment to the Senate means that he would not have the same direct access to Prime Minister Mark Carney that he had as principal secretary. The Hill Times photograph by Stuart Benson

In interviews with The Hill Times, senior Liberals neither confirmed nor denied that a cabinet shuffle is planned for this summer.

“At this time, we don’t have any plans, but it could change,” said one top Liberal.

But it’s not unusual for senior Liberals to confirm plans for a cabinet shuffle until shortly before it takes place, as public speculation can quickly dominate the political agenda, and overshadow government announcements and other public policy priorities.

Liberal MPs and other political insiders who expect a shuffle this summer argue the circumstances have changed significantly since Carney unveiled his first post-election cabinet in May 2025. At the time, the Liberals had just secured a minority government, Carney was new to elected politics and had only recently won his first election as both an MP and prime minister.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, pictured in June walking down Sparks Street in Ottawa to the National Press Theatre. The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia

They say after nearly 18 months in office, Carney now has a much deeper understanding of the country’s political and economic challenges. He has represented Canada on the world stage, worked closely with his ministers and senior officials, and now leads a majority government which has a significantly different dynamic. They also say the government is preparing for major political challenges in the months ahead, including free trade negotiations with the United States and Mexico, Alberta’s separation referendum this fall, and the possibility of a sovereignty referendum in Quebec should the Parti Québécois win October’s provincial election.

Insiders also point to the two roles held by Steven MacKinnon (Gatineau, Que.), who is both government House leader and transport minister. They argue that both portfolios require a full-time minister, particularly as the government advances major initiatives such as high-speed rail while responding to concerns from rural Canadians.

Deputy chief of staff Braeden Caley left PMO last week to run in B.C. byelection

With speculation mounting, potential cabinet contenders are quietly positioning themselves for promotion, while incumbent ministers await word on whether they will remain in their portfolios, be shuffled, or be dropped from cabinet altogether. Some Liberal MPs who believe they are under consideration are even planning their summer vacations around the possibility of a shuffle, particularly if they are travelling outside the country.

“I cannot imagine our government going into the fall sitting without a shuffle,” said one Liberal MP in an interview with The Hill Times who did not want to be identified in order to be candid. “I don’t see how we can continue without any changes.”

Some even joked about the prospect, and how MPs and insiders are preoccupied about a potential shuffle.

“I haven’t been contacted so it’s most likely going to happen,” said a second Liberal MP with a chuckle. “No one has contacted [me] so that means it’s moving forward. People keep on whispering back and forth if this is going to happen.”

Since announcing his cabinet after the April 28, 2025, election, Carney has tweaked his front bench with some adjustments, including following the resignations of some ministers, such as that of Steven Guilbeault (Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Que.), who was minister of Canadian identity and official languages from May 2025 until November 2025 when he resigned after publicly disagreeing with Carney’s decision to sign a memorandum of understanding with Alberta over a new pipeline. Guilbeault has announced that he will step down from his House seat this summer.

Guilbeault’s resignation from cabinet last November triggered three changes: Marc Miller (Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Soeurs, Que.) was appointed as minister of Canadian identity, culture, and official languages. Procurement Minister Joël Lightbound (Louis-Hébert, Que.) was named Quebec lieutenant, while Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin (Toronto-Danforth, Ont.) was given the additional responsibility for Nature.

Carney also gave MacKinnon the transport file after Chrystia Freeland stepped down last September to serve as a special adviser to Ukrainian president.

Meanwhile, Carney announced the appointment of his principal secretary, Tom Pitfield, to the Senate last week. The appointment had been the subject of speculation in Ottawa for several days beforehand.

In response to a Hill Times question about Pitfield’s potential appointment to the Senate on June 30—one week before his appointment was actually announced—a PMO spokeswoman wrote: “There has been no change to Mr. Pitfield’s role, having served as principal secretary to the prime minister since March 2025.”

On July 7, Carney announced the appointment of his principal secretary as an Independent Senator along with three others.

PMO deputy chief of staff Braeden Caley left the PMO last week to run as a candidate in the riding of North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C. The seat became vacant recently after Jonathan Wilkinson resigned to become Canada’s ambassador to Germany. It remains unclear whether Caley will be appointed the Liberal candidate, as the party did not hold open nomination elections the previous three byelections, or whether he will have to compete in a nomination contest.

PMO Deputy Chief of Staff Braeden Caley, right, speaking with The Toronto Star‘s Tonda MacCharles at an event in June, left his job last week to run as the Liberal candidate in North Vancouver-Capilano, B.C. The Hill Times photograph by Stuart Benson

A former Liberal Party spokesperson, Caley previously worked at Canada 2020 before joining Carney’s leadership campaign and later joining his PMO.

Carney’s director of global affairs, Lisa Jorgenson, is scheduled to start her parental leave at the end of this month. More PMO and cabinet ministerial staffing changes are also expected later this month.

As of last week, it is unclear whether Carney has planned to replace Pitfield and Caley in the PMO. In interviews with The Hill Times, ministerial staffers said that some chiefs of staff could be promoted to the PMO, while others suggested Carney might look outside Ottawa’s political circles to recruit new senior advisers. Others said that Carney could fill these positions by promoting someone from the PMO. The Globe and Mail reported on July 12 that PMO director of policy Tim Krupa could be promoted as deputy chief of staff to succeed Caley, and that Shaili Patel, the current deputy director of policy, could succeed Krupa in the policy shop.

Will new top PMO staff be politics-oriented or policy wonks, asks pollster Lyle

Pitfield’s departure surprised some pundits, who viewed him as the prime minister’s most influential political adviser because of his direct daily access to Carney. While Pitfield’s appointment to the Senate will allow him to remain involved in politics, they said he will no longer have the same day-to-day access to the prime minister that he enjoyed as principal secretary.

“As principal secretary, he’s got an office down the hall from the prime minister, he’s in the immediate orbit,” said Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research, in an interview with The Hill Times.

“If he’s going into the Senate, that sort of suggests they’re trying to make room for someone else in the PMO.”

Lyle said that as someone who’s entered politics only recently, Carney has now spent about a year-and-a-half as prime minister and has developed a much better understanding of the demands of the job. Given that experience, he said, it is only natural that Carney would want to adjust his team.

“He didn’t really know what his needs would be. He imagined what his needs would be, but now he knows,” said Lyle.

“The two people [Pitfield and Caley] who are moving on to other active roles outside the PMO are very political people. The question is, will he get new political people, or will he go in a more policy/execution approach? That will be interesting.”


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John English, a biographer and former Liberal MP, agreed with Lyle that Pitfield is unlikely to wield the same level of influence as a Senator that he has had as a principal secretary to the prime minister, but said his political experience will be a valuable asset in the Senate.

English said that, under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, most newly appointed Independent senators had little first-hand experience with the political realities of the electoral process. That perspective, he argued, is important when Senators are reviewing and debating government legislation and policies.

As a pollster and political strategist, Pitfield played a key role in helping Trudeau win three consecutive federal elections and later assisted Carney in securing his own electoral victory in last year’s election.

English said that Pitfield’s late father, Michael Pitfield, was appointed to the Senate as an Independent by then-prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau in 1982, and went on to become a highly respected Senator. English said he hopes Pitfield will make a similarly significant contribution in the Upper Chamber. Pitfield’s wife, Anna Gainey (Notre-Dame-de-Grace–Westmount, Que.), is Carney’s secretary of state for children and youth. They are currently the only couple who are simultaneously serving in Parliament.

“He’s been in the political maelstrom for quite a while, and he probably wants some peace and quiet,” said English. “Secondly, his wife is a member of the House of Commons and secretary of state. That probably makes it more complicated being in the PMO. … And the third reason is the Senate does give you, especially now, the capacity to do things in areas where you’re interested, and they have a budget, they have a staff, and they have a voice.”

arana@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

 

Abbas Rana is the assistant deputy editor at The Hill Times. He reports on parliamentary caucuses, nomination contests, party leadership campaigns, Prime Minister’s Office, and cabinet. Rana loves to chat with sources on the record or on a not-for-attribution basis, especially when they have verifiable story tips that could be followed as news stories. Born and raised in Pakistan, Rana speaks Punjabi, Urdu, and Hindi. See all stories BY ABBAS RANA