TEL AVIV — President Donald Trump’s decision to pause strikes on Iran and pursue diplomacy once again has underscored a difficult reality for Israel — despite months of pressing Washington to sustain military pressure on Iran, Israeli officials appear to have had little sway in the White House.
“The Israeli leadership realizes it has little to no influence over decision-making in Washington on the Iran file. That is why the government has not reacted publicly to reports about the potential resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran,” Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis Research Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, told Al-Monitor.
On Sunday, Trump said negotiations with Iran to finalize a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz would begin Monday. Speaking with reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said that he had called off a major attack on Iran over the weekend following requests from allies. “We were all set to go at this time right now, and it would have been a massive attack… but [then] the allies asked to call it off… The reason they asked is they think there’s a deal,” he said.
Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor any other cabinet minister reacted publicly to Trump’s statement, indicating that Israel had been left in the dark over the weekend regarding Trump’s intentions toward Iran, Zimmt said.
A tense weekend in Israel
The weekend was especially tense in Israel, with Israeli and American media suggesting that the US might soon carry out a large attack on Iran.
Citing Israeli officials, CBS News reported Saturday that the US and Israel were planning an extensive bombing campaign targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure. Still, one of the sources was quoted as saying, “Israel is unaware of a decision to restart full military operations, nor has it been asked to join any military action against Iran.”
Ynet reported Saturday that the Israeli military had raised its level of preparedness, but that for the time being there were no changes to Home Front Command guidelines for the public. Israeli security sources confirmed to Al-Monitor that the military was on high alert, particularly the Air Force. Israel’s Transportation Ministry said that Ben Gurion International Airport was operating as usual, adding that it was “prepared and ready for any scenario.”
Adding to the tension were warnings issued by US embassies across the region — including in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Israel — urging American nationals to be prepared to leave immediately in the event of an escalation. The US Embassy in Jerusalem posted on X: “Americans currently in the Middle East should exercise caution and heightened vigilance and should be prepared for flight cancellations, periodic airspace closures and potential travel disruptions,” adding that “Americans in the region should consider departing, or be prepared to depart should there be escalation.”
Israel’s preferred path
As previously reported by Al-Monitor, during his July 28 meeting with Trump, Netanyahu avoided directly urging the president to expand the military campaign against Iran or to invite Israel to join it, so as not to be accused of pushing the US into war. Instead, he presented Trump with intelligence regarding Iranian activity at the Pickaxe Mountain site, arguing that Tehran cannot be trusted, especially when it comes to its nuclear program.
Israel’s public broadcaster Kan reported on July 29, citing an unnamed senior diplomatic source, that during their White House meeting Trump and Netanyahu discussed three broad options on Iran: pursuing a comprehensive diplomatic agreement, continuing economic pressure and a naval blockade, or renewed large-scale military action. “No decisions were made, and Netanyahu did not state his preferred option, but rather explained how each one would advance the achievement of the goals,” the senior diplomatic source said.
“Israel’s position is clear: it would have preferred the Americans to resume strikes on Iran, but only if the campaign targeted the nuclear program or, at the very least, included large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure in order to exact a heavy price from the Tehran regime,” Zimmt said.
Still, since Trump alone will make that decision, Israel has no interest in being seen as pushing him to resume the campaign, he added. That is why Netanyahu has barely addressed the issue since returning from his trip to Washington, according to Zimmt.
Trump’s decision to pursue diplomacy suggests Israel’s preference for renewed military pressure did not prevail.
Saudi Arabia has the upper hand
Axios reported Saturday that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke with Trump to express his concern over American plans for massive new strikes against Iran. Crown Prince Mohammed, the report said, urged the American president to de-escalate the situation and refrain from launching the strikes.
Israel views Saudi Arabia’s push for de-escalation and renewed engagement with Tehran as at odds with its own approach to Iran.
For most Gulf states, the focus is increasingly on the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and regional stability, as prolonged uncertainty and the risk of renewed conflict carry economic and security costs.
For Israel, however, the calculation is different. “The current status quo — no war but no negotiations yet — is preferable for Israel to an agreement between Washington and Tehran,” an Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “Israel is convinced that a deal would guarantee neither the end of Iran’s nuclear program nor the dismantling of its ballistic missile capabilities,” he said, adding that Washington is focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which is not a priority for Israel.