Very few believe that Farage will not win this by-electionpublished at 22:00 BST
22:00 BST
Harry Farley
Reporting from Clacton
Image source, PA Media
The result here isn’t in doubt.
No one I’ve spoken to in recent days – whether in Clacton or in Westminster – believes anyone other than Nigel Farage will win tonight.
One thing that does matter is the size of victory. Despite not facing any challenge from the main political parties, Reform UK have spent a lot of time and around £150,000 campaigning here in recent weeks.
From sources I’ve been speaking to in the party, they argue if Reform UK wins at least 70% of the vote tonight, that will secure the seat for Farage even if he has to come back for another by-election if Parliament’s independent standards commissioner finds he seriously broke the rules over his £5m gift.
Farage wants to argue that a comfortable victory will send a message to the establishment. But the establishment in this by-election are represented by an assortment of minor parties and satirical candidates, including three from the Monster Raving Loony Party and Count Binface, a comedian in a spacesuit with a bin on his head.
The danger for Farage is not so much the result tonight. But whether it makes him look like an unserious politician, not the prime minister in waiting he insists he is.