Welcome back to the Power Rankings.
With just one week left in the season, we’re no closer to finding a clear premiership favourite. Plus why Collingwood is disadvantaged by the final round fixture.
See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 23 below!
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How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.
All times AEST.
See the Fox Footy Power Rankings after Round 23.Source: FOX SPORTS
1. ADELAIDE CROWS (17-5, 141%)
Last week: Ranked 1st, def Collingwood by 2 pts
This week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:20pm
2. GEELONG (16-6, 140.7%)
Last week: Ranked 2nd, def Sydney by 43 pts
This week: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm
It’s fitting that the two top-nine sides with the easiest Round 24 games are the top two – it’s like they’ve earned an early break. Assuming there are no enormous upsets, the Crows and Cats will host 2025’s qualifying finals, and thus be the natural favourites to make the Grand Final. Izak Rankine’s unfortunate situation is likely to hurt the Crows quite a bit but teams have won flags without one of their best players before; just look at West Coast in 2018. And the Cats are just flying under the radar quite nicely; as we wrote last week, in 2022 they had a similarly easy last six weeks and that didn’t ruin their chances of winning that year’s premiership. Plus it was hard not to be impressed with the way they took care of business against a pretty good Sydney side. There’s no clear flag favourite this year, and it would be fair to point out these teams had easier draws than most of their top-eight rivals (Adelaide due to finishing 15th, Geelong due to… we don’t know why). They are both flawed; the Crows are untested in September, and the Cats just don’t feel like the team their record says they are. But given the other options it would be equally fair to argue these are the two best teams and deserve their places at the top of the pecking order, almost by default. Look at it this way, though – if you asked us who you’d take to win the flag, ‘Adelaide or Geelong’ or ‘The Rest Of The Field’, we’d gladly take the field.
‘I have sympathy for the club, not Izak’ | 05:09
3. BRISBANE LIONS (15-6-1, 114.3%)
Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Fremantle by 57 pts
This week: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Sunday 7:20pm
4. HAWTHORN (15-7, 122.7%)
Last week: Ranked 5th, def Melbourne by 36 pts
This week: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Sunday 7:20pm
Our pre-season Grand Final tip was Hawthorn vs Brisbane, so we’re glad to see both teams will at least play finals. They’re both high-quality teams producing some brilliant performances at the right time of year, so either of them could still win it, but it’s hard to overstate how much Sunday night matters. The Lions will finish top three with a win, but likely 7th or 8th with a loss; the Hawks could make the top four with a win, but likely 7th or 8th with a loss. The finals bracket could still work out where Sunday night’s loser makes a deep run, and they could even meet again in a semi-final or prelim; but with the top eight being so even, a higher seeding has even greater importance. (Though admittedly the Lions’ indifferent home form this season means they’d probably be fine needing to win a few away finals again.)
5. COLLINGWOOD (15-7, 123.1%)
Last week: Ranked 6th, lost to Adelaide by 3 pts
As we said last week, everyone was overreacting to the Magpies’ plight. Having copped a few injuries, they had a couple of bad losses, but have otherwise just found themselves in some close games… and sometimes, you lose close games. We’ve moved them up a place in this week’s rankings partially because Gold Coast had to go down, but also because they were pretty damn good against the Crows! But if they had an advantage in thrillers before, they’ve lost it now, with nobody falling for their new trick of ‘tackling someone but not actually tackling them and putting their hand up saying hey I’m not tackling him this is holding the ball’. Regression to the mean comes for everybody, and having lost four games against contenders by a goal or less, the Magpies are probably now better than everyone thinks. They may still miss the top four, even if they smash Melbourne, because Gold Coast gets to play last in Round 24 and will know how much percentage they need to gain. This might be the first time Collingwood has ever been disadvantaged by the AFL fixture… bloody cyclone.
This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Friday 7:10pm
‘I think it’s the non-free of the year!’ | 00:28
6. GWS GIANTS (15-7, 115.5%)
Last week: Ranked 9th, def Gold Coast by 35 pts
In trademark Giants fashion, the moment we count them out (by ranking them ninth last week), they produce a brilliant away win against a fellow contender while undermanned. The Suns weren’t great but don’t discount how good a performance that was from the orange team, who will now play finals, though because of their pedestrian percentage – which is evidence of their season-long inconsistency – they are very unlikely to sneak into the top four. They’re good enough to win four finals if you’re evaluating each game individually; as in, they’d be good enough to beat anyone on their day. But they don’t feel consistently good enough to win four in a row, even with their midfield performing much better over the second half of this season. Of course by writing that we’ve guaranteed the Giants are gonna win the flag so you’re welcome, Adam Kingsley, please thank us in your post-Grand Final speech! (We will count ‘shoutout to the haters’ as a mention.)
This week: St Kilda at ENGIE Stadium, Sunday 12;20pm
7. GOLD COAST SUNS (14-7, 121.2%)
Last week: Ranked 4th, lost to GWS by 35 pts
“They couldn’t… unless? Nah, they couldn’t… unless? Nah, come on, don’t be silly… unless? But no, seriously, they’ll be fine… unless?” — our brain looking at the Suns, famous for falling apart late in the season, still needing to beat Port Adelaide and Essendon to actually guarantee they’ll play finals
This week: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Friday 8:10pm AND Essendon at People First Stadium, next Wednesday 7:20pm
Lynch & Brown’s Top 5 Marks of 2025 | 02:07
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (14-8, 140.3%)
Last week: Ranked 8th, def West Coast by 94 pts
This week: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
9. FREMANTLE (15-7, 108.6%)
Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Brisbane by 57 pts
This week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
It’s only fitting that these teams will face off on the final Sunday of the season to determine which of them plays finals, because they’re used to it. Last year the Dockers famously had a chance to sneak into the eight thanks to Carlton’s dramatic loss to St Kilda, but failed. The Dogs were also depending on final-day results last year… and in 2023… and 2022… and in 2021 the final Saturday decided whether they’d make the top four or not… and in 2020… and in 2019… OK holy crap Dogs fans how do you deal with all this?? Anyway, don’t count out the winner of their Sunday afternoon showdown from making the semi-finals or better. Their most likely elimination final opponent would be GWS, a team both of them have beaten this year.
10. SYDNEY SWANS (11-11, 93.3%)
Last week: Ranked 10th, lost to Geelong by 43 pts
We spotted some good data viz on how weird the ladder looks right now on Twitter on Monday – check it out here, and the post should be embedded below – but it’s basically showing that Sydney is a slightly above-average 10th-placed team, winning two premiership points per game. That would’ve even gotten them into the eight in some seasons… but these are the best-performing 7th, 8th and 9th-placed teams we’ve seen in at least 30 years. So even if the Swans hadn’t had a brutal run with injuries through the first half of the season, honestly, it might’ve been tough to make the eight. It has just been a very, very weird year. (For those wondering, the best 10th-place record of the past 30 years comes from Geelong 2015, who effectively won 12 of 22 games – 11 wins plus two draws, including a cancelled game due to the Phil Walsh tragedy).
This week: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm
Saints to drop 20% of cap on NAS & TDK? | 01:17
11. CARLTON (8-14, 94.7%)
Last week: Ranked 12th, def Port Adelaide by 54 pts
This week: Essendon at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm
12. MELBOURNE (7-15, 93.4%)
Last week: Ranked 11th, lost to Melbourne by 36 pts
This week: Collingwood at the MCG, Friday 7:10pm
13. ST KILDA (9-13, 88.5%)
Last week: Ranked 13th, def Essendon by 2 pts
This week: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium, Sunday 12:20pm
14. PORT ADELAIDE (8-14, 79%)
Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Carlton by 54 pts
This week: Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval, Friday 8:10pm
The biggest win by any of these teams this season, by far, was St Kilda getting Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to re-sign. Keep in mind that a $2 million salary under the current cap is basically what Dustin Martin and Buddy Franklin were on when they signed their mega-deals, in terms of the portion of the salary cap taken up. Is Nas as good as either of those players? No, of course not, even if he’s pretty damn good. But contracts are about leverage more than talent. While we genuinely think he did not decide whether he’d be requesting a trade or staying at St Kilda until Monday morning, it had the fantastic side benefit of giving him the perfect negotiating position, forcing up his price as the Saints got more and more desperate. Nothing wrong with a short-term lucrative deal, either, because it’s much harder for it to go wrong. Great result for all parties… including the media, because we’ll get to spend 2027 writing about whether he’ll request a trade home.
Saints re-sign star Wanganeen-Milera | 02:54
15. ESSENDON (6-15, 72.3%)
Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to St Kilda by 2 pts
This week: Carlton at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm AND Essendon at People First Stadium, next Wednesday 7:20pm
16. NORTH MELBOURNE (5-16-1, 75.7%)
Last week: Ranked 16th, def Richmond by 48 pts
This week: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:20pm
17. RICHMOND (5-17, 66.1%)
Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to North Melbourne by 48 pts
This week: Geelong at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm
18. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-21, 61%)
Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 94 pts
This week: Sydney Swans at Optus Stadium, Saturday 7:35pm
It was nice of Round 23 to confirm what the season has told us as a whole – the Bombers are better than the bottom three, the Kangaroos are better than the bottom two, and the Eagles are deserving wooden spooners (though not four wins worse than Richmond). Just remember that last year Adelaide finished 15th, and they’re about to finish on top of the ladder. That was a pretty weird result both at the time and in retrospect – their percentage was 99.1! – so we’re not suggesting the Bombers are going to be 2026 minor premiers. But a team going from 15th to 1st has now happened, which means it can happen again.