Jair Bolsonaro lost Brazil by a whisker. Then he lost his freedom. Now his eldest son wants both back.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old senator and firstborn to Brazil’s disgraced former president, is trying to unseat Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, free Dad from a 27-year sentence and restore the family dynasty to the presidential palace.
Part presidential bid, part personal vendetta, it’s a political storyline so juicy that Netflix executives are likely hard at work already figuring out who to cast in the eight-part dramatized documentary.
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But, just as every good drama series needs a wildcard character, there’s another person involved in this intense family affair: Uncle Donald.
The President of the United States is an old friend of Bolsonaro Sr., and for proponents of the “Donroe Doctrine,” Brazil is one of the biggest prizes on the board. A Bolsonaro restoration would put a Trump ally in charge of Latin America‘s largest economy, erode China’s influence and further Washington’s interests in its hemispheric backyard, experts told Newsweek.
First, though, Junior has to win—and any attempt by Trump to tip the scales in his favor before October’s elections may give Lula all the ammunition he needs to vanquish the Bolsonaro clan once and for all.
Tal Pai, Tal Filho
The first presidential shootout between Lula and Bolsonaro was unbelievably tense.
The campaign was marred by brutal exchanges: Bolsonaro labeled his opponent a “thief” and “ex-convict” who belonged back in prison—a reference to the president’s conviction on corruption charges later overturned by Brazil’s Supreme Court. Lula, meanwhile, styled himself as a beacon of democracy protecting the nation against a “genocidal” former army captain.
Both were bloodied and battered, but Lula eked out the victory. He took 50.9 percent of the votes in 2022 versus Bolsonaro’s 49.1 percent and secured his third presidential term in the closest election in modern Brazilian history.
In defeat, Bolsonaro took a leaf out of Trump’s book. First, he refused to concede. Then he cried election fraud and cast doubt on Brazil’s electronic ballot box. Then he went a step further, and paid the price. Last year, he was found guilty of plotting a military coup and sentenced to 27 years in prison. He is now under house arrest as he battles mounting health problems.
One son has already been burned trying to save him.
Former congressman Eduardo was found guilty by Brazil’s Supreme Court of lobbying U.S. authorities to intervene in his father’s legal battle. He now lives in America and will face a four-year sentence if he ever returns to Brazil.
Flávio is taking a different tack. Why try to defeat the Brazilian justice system from the outside, when you can win an election and pardon your father from the presidential palace? On Sunday, the senator of Rio de Janeiro officially launched his presidential campaign on Copacabana Beach with one clear theme: revenge.
Flávio has a real shot. A Quaest poll released August 14 put Lula on 43 percent and Flávio on 40 percent in a hypothetical runoff—a statistical tie within the survey’s two-point margin of error. A BTG/Nexus survey released days later had the pair at 47 percent to 44 percent.
Get a Friendly Face in Place
For the U.S., Flávio’s bid for the presidency goes well beyond a domestic political feud.
The Donroe Doctrine—officially the “Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine” in the parlance of the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy—argues that Washington must “enlist” friendly governments and leaders willing to do business, to fight cartels and clamp down on immigration, and to prevent “non-Hemispheric competitors” (read: China) from controlling strategically important assets.
As Latin America’s largest economy with vast natural resources and wealth, Brazil is therefore of utmost importance. But under Lula, Brasilia’s trade with Beijing reached a record $171 billion in 2025, more than double the volume of bilateral trade with Washington. The gap has continued to grow this year, too; Brazil’s exports to and imports from the U.S. declined 12.2 percent and 10.4 percent in the first six months of 2026, while exports to and imports from China grew 19.7 percent and 8 percent, according to Brazilian government figures.
“The Trump administration expects that Brazil, which has increased economic ties with China under Lula, goes back to its preferential, if not dependent, relations with the U.S,” Rafael Ioris, professor of Latin American History and Politics at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, told Newsweek.
“This is not something that Lula is ready to accept. It is clear that President Trump, and especially Secretary of State Marco Rubio, believe that U.S. interests would be better promoted if the Bolsonaro clan returns to power, and they are right.”
In May, Lula traveled to Washington to discuss the trade imbalance with Trump, and the pair agreed to establish a joint working group to try to resolve their disputes. Later that month, Flávio and Eduardo Bolsonaro made a visit of their own to the White House and effectively delivered the Donroe Doctrine pitch word for word to Trump.
First came the fight against organized crime. Flávio, who intends to build several maximum-security detention facilities modeled on El Salvador’s infamous CECOT megaprison, asked Trump to designate two Brazilian gangs, Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV), as terror organizations. Two days later, it was done.
Then, the discussion turned to commerce.
“Flávio Bolsonaro pointed to rare-earth resources as a potential area of cooperation between Brazil and the United States and is more likely to make concessions to the White House to restore trade relations,” Gustavo A. Flores-Macías, an expert on Brazilian politics and professor with the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, told Newsweek.
Best Laid Plans…
Trump might want Bolsonaro Jr. in power, but his meddling in Brazil’s political affairs did nothing to save the father.
The president and his entourage openly endorsed his Brazilian counterpart in the run-up to the 2022 election, cast him as the only hope of preventing the rise of communism and socialism in Latin America, and peddled Bolsonaro’s criticism of his nation’s electronic voting practices to lay the groundwork for challenging an unfavorable result.
In the wake of Bolsonaro’s defeat and investigation into his plans to launch a coup, Trump went a step further, slapping 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian imports and sanctioning a Supreme Court judge.
The abuse of power went awry. The courts went ahead and meted out justice anyway, while Lula enjoyed a popularity boost as he wrapped himself in the flag, assuming the role of national defender against a bullying power. Lula has returned to the same playbook this election, accusing Washington of trying to influence the vote and casting Brazilian control of its minerals and economy as a question of national sovereignty.
Now, with less than two months to go until voting begins, the conflict is escalating again.
In July, Washington announced new tariffs on hundreds of Brazilian goods. Brasilia refused visas to two U.S. officials, citing concerns the envoys had been sent to interfere in the elections. Washington then revoked the visa of the Brazilian ambassador, and the White House is now reportedly weighing up fresh sanctions against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, according to the Financial Times.
The irony is that Trump does not necessarily need his old friend’s son in power to improve America’s ties with Brazil.
“Lula is a very pragmatic politician, willing to negotiate trade and other deals with whoever is in the White House,” Ioris said, pointing out that even powerful business groups typically aligned with the Bolsonaros have sided with Lula in condemning Trump’s tariffs.
However, the U.S. president appears committed to pursuing his pressure tactics in favor of Bolsonaro once again. “It would be more logical to negotiate with Lula…but, as much as it claims to be defending economic interests of the American people, the U.S. administration acts based on ideological motivations.”
Flores-Macías was skeptical about how much influence Trump can wield over Brazilian voters given how polarized the electorate has become. “If President Trump openly backs Flávio Bolsonaro, only a small share of voters might be persuaded. But, because favorable attitudes toward the U.S. have trended down in Latin America, any perceived attempts of meddling in elections might backfire.”
Both experts agreed on one thing, though—victory for Lula will leave Trump red in the face.
“The Trump administration basically wants the region to remain aligned with, even better, subordinate to its plans for the hemisphere and…its hegemonic dispute with China,” Ioris said. “This would certainly tarnish the success that the administration has had thus far in reshaping the course of Latin America. Given the size of Brazil, this shortcoming would have great significance.”
So, Flávio wants the presidency to restore his father; Trump would like the son to help restore American primacy in the Western Hemisphere. But if Uncle Donald tries too hard to save the Bolsonaro dynasty, he will only be helping the man who destroyed it in the first place.
The Netflix doc is going to be a good one.