President Donald Trump claimed Monday that his war of choice with Iran is not the reason Americans are paying more for diesel fuel, instead scapegoating Ukraine for its attacks on Russian refineries.
“Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise!” Trump wrote on social media. “The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran. President DJT”
The convenient accusation shifts blame away from his war in Iran, which has snarled tanker traffic through the Straight of Hormuz. Before the Iran war, between 10% to 20% of global seaborne diesel traveled through the strait.
An energy cost tracker by Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab shows the cost of diesel in the U.S. (and regular unleaded) both soared after Trump’s war began Feb. 28. Today, the average cost for a gallon of diesel costs $6.23; were we not at war with Iran, Brown estimates the cost would be closer to $3.81.
While it’s true Ukraine’s strikes have created fuel disruptions, those are being felt most acutely in Russia itself, followed by countries Russia used to export to before announcing an export ban. Historically that’s been Turkey and Brazil, according to S&P Global, followed by Egypt, Morocco and other African countries.
That doesn’t mean that less diesel entering the global market from Russia hasn’t contributed to the spike in prices. But it does mean Trump’s claim that his war with Iran isn’t a main driver is bunk.
The U.S. hasn’t imported any petroleum products from Russia — including diesel — since 2022. Europe likewise banned imports of refined Russian products in 2023. U.S. exports of diesel are at a corresponding all-time high, with most of it going to Europe.
Trump himself has acknowledged the role of the war in driving up fuel prices, telling Americans earlier this month that paying “a tiny little bit more for your gasoline” is worth the cost of of the war.