Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff led Republican Representative Mike Collins by more than six points in a new survey from pollster Trafalgar Group.
The poll was published this weekend, just before the 50-day mark ahead of the November 3 midterms. The poll is the latest in a series of polls showing Ossoff with a lead in the Peach State, as the Georgia Senate race remains one of the most closely watched contests of the midterms.
Republicans believe the race is competitive, pointing to President Donald Trump’s 2-point victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. But Democrats believe that Trump’s national approval rating, which has declined amid economic concerns, could give them an advantage in the closely divided swing state.
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Although Georgia backed Trump in 2024, former President Joe Biden won it four years earlier in 2020, and it reelected Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock in 2022. Growth around the blue-shifting Atlanta metro has turned the once-Republican state into a battleground, and Democrats hope those trends will continue to boost Ossoff this year.
Georgia Senate Poll Gives Jon Ossoff a Lead
Ossoff received support from 49.4 percent of respondents, while Collins’ support stood at 42.8 percent, according to the poll. Only 1.3 percent said they would vote for Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley, while 6.5 percent were still undecided, the poll found.
It surveyed 1,091 respondents from September 10-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Trafalgar was founded by Robert Cahaly, who has served as a political consultant for Republicans, and is generally seen as having a Republican lean. It has overestimated Republicans in some races, particularly in 2022, but also correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016 even as many other pollsters forecasted that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held an advantage.
An Ossoff campaign spokesperson told Newsweek, “Georgia is a battleground state and Senator Ossoff is already facing millions of dollars of Republican spending against him. The Ossoff campaign will continue to build unstoppable momentum and work to earn every vote across the state of Georgia.”
Newsweek also reached out to the Collins campaign for comment via email.
What Other Polls Show
Other recent polling similarly gives Ossoff a lead over Collins, who was first elected to the House of Representatives in 2022.
Ossoff led by 7 points in the latest poll from InsiderAdvantage, which placed the Democratic incumbent’s support at 50 percent, while 43 percent said they would vote for Collins. Seven percent of respondents said they were undecided about how they would vote in the general election.
The poll surveyed 800 likely voters August 16 to 17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. It was first reported by James Magazine, a statewide political publication in Georgia.
Collins trailed Ossoff by 9 points in a recent poll from AARP, 52 percent to 43 percent. It was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research among 1,060 likely voters July 13-16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A recent Wick survey showed Ossoff up by 4 points with 46.7 percent to Collins’ 42.9 percent. It surveyed 1,175 likely voters from June 27-30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Ossoff held a larger lead in an earlier Fox News poll of 13 points, 56 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 1,002 registered voters from June 23 to 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
What Prediction Markets Show
Ossoff is favored in prediction markets, holding a 94 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and a 93 percent in January. His chances on Kalshi have increased steadily throughout the election cycle.
On Kalshi, Ossoff had a 91 percent chance of winning on August 1, an 85 percent chance of winning as of July 2, an 81 percent chance as of June 2 and a 75 percent chance of winning as of the start of the year on January 1.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
A New Battleground
Georgia was once viewed as more reliably Republican during the 2000s and 2010s but has steadily shifted toward competitive status due to rapid growth and demographic change in Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs.
In fact, some of Atlanta’s suburbs were among the only places in the country to get more Democratic from 2020 to 2024, despite major shifts rightward elsewhere across the nation—a sign of how quickly these areas are trending leftward.
Democrats hope those trends accelerate in 2026 as they work to continue building progress in Georgia.
Trump carried Georgia by about 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election, after Joe Biden won the state by roughly 0.2 points in 2020. Trump won Georgia by about 5 points in 2016, while Mitt Romney won it by roughly 8 points in 2012 and John McCain by about 5 points in 2008.
Jon Ossoff Calls for AI Action in Speech
Over the weekend, a clip of Ossoff calling for action on artificial intelligence spread across social media.
“Tech titans dig bunkers while warning us the new intelligence they’re creating risks human extinction. Congress debates youth sports, and the president builds a ballroom. An ancient establishment, barely capable of email, sleepwalks into a technological revolution, while the president dismantles precautions and calls us fools for worrying,” he said.
Ossoff said a “capable Congress” would engage every committee in investigation and legislation to “act swiftly and wisely,” but said Republicans “sit on their hands and hope for the best.”
His comments came after Jacob Coxon, a former AI researcher for Anthropic and OpenAI, wrote in a post on X that he resigned from his role at Anthropic and warned that he believes AI could “kill us all by the end of the decade,” sparking greater calls for Congress to address regulation.
Georgia Is Must-Win State
Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to win control of the chamber but are facing a challenging map, as Vice President JD Vance would serve as the tiebreaker in an evenly divided Senate. Control of the Senate is seen as increasingly up for grabs ahead of November.
Georgia is one of two Democratic-held seats in states Trump won in the 2024 election that is up for grabs in November—along with Michigan.
Democrats view North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points, and Maine, which he lost by 7 points, as their top flip opportunities in November.
But no other GOP-held seats are up for grabs in states Trump won or lost by single digits, so Democrats have to turn to more conservative states to compete for Senate control.
They view seats in states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, all of which backed Trump by double digits in 2024, as their next best opportunities. Polls show close races in each of those states.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Jason Lemon and Anthony Murray.