Ad we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for the Steelers to end up on the right side of the score, and vice versa, in their Week Two contest against the New England Patriots.

My Steelers prediction is at the bottom.

The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Defense Contains Drake Maye’s Legs

There’s no doubt what New England’s offensive game plan will look like. Take care of the football. Expect a more conservative offense that leans on their strength. Drake Maye’s legs are a serious threat, and he’ll make good use of them instead of forcing throws that end in interceptions.

Pittsburgh must rush smart. A four-man rush makes it difficult to contain a mobile threat like Maye, and he loves escaping up the middle when the seas part. The Steelers could bring five rushers to plug up gaps, but it’s harder to play zone behind with just six in coverage.

No matter the Steelers’ plan, don’t let Maye crush you with his legs.

2. Receiver Depth Steps Up

Expect the Patriots’ top cornerback Christian Gonzalez to shadow DK Metcalf for most of the game. Pittsburgh needs to create schematic matchups to get Metcalf on other defenders (bunch formations to take advantage of New England’s match rules, for example), but other receivers will need to step up assuming Metcalf will have his hands full in this game.

Without Michael Pittman Jr., that onus falls on Roman Wilson and rookie Germie Bernard. Wilson ran impressive routes in the opener but still must prove he’s capable of finishing plays. Bernard logged just three snaps and could have a big chance to show he’s worthy of more playing time.

Of course, Pat Freiermuth will be leaned on plenty and Darnell Washington could see more targets. It’ll take a full-team effort to create more pass game wins, including the wide receivers.

3. Turnover Battle Advantage Continues

It’s no secret how Pittsburgh wins its games. Win the turnover battle. It’s how they beat Atlanta in Week One, and it’s how they beat New England last year. It’s also how the Patriots dropped their season opener with three Drake Maye interceptions against Seattle.

If Pittsburgh can replicate that and come out ahead in the turnover battle, it gives the Steelers a clear path to victory. A short field could go a long way for two offenses who, on paper, look worse than the defenses they’ll be facing.

The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Patriots Punt Return Game Writes Headline

New England has one of the game’s best punt returns in Marcus Jones. Last year, he housed two punts for touchdowns to give him three for his career. With two fair catches in the opener, Jones didn’t get a chance to make a play. He’ll be champing at the bit to contribute in the team’s home opener.

Pittsburgh has to cover things well. Good hangtime from Cameron Johnston, lane integrity from the coverage team, rallying and making tackles to avoid a big runback.

2. Patriots Coaches Counter Punch

It’s always harder to beat a team that second time. The side on the losing end has a clear plan of how to counter punch and rectify their mistakes. New England is doing plenty of homework of how to reset after Week One’s loss to Seattle, Week Three’s loss to Pittsburgh last year, and even Week One’s loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in 2025 when Patrick Graham served as the team’s defensive coordinator.

New England is a well-coached team. With extra time to rest and prepare, it wouldn’t be shocking if the Patriots came out with a strong game plan to fix their pain points from recent defeats.

3. Defense Can’t Smash The Run

The Steelers have every reason to contain New England’s running game, but if they can’t, they’re in trouble. Treveyon Henderson returns and his speed makes him a threat. All it takes is one big run to change the tone of this game.

Rhamondre Stevenson will remain the lead back. New England will come out with a physical brand of offense with multiple tight ends and a fullback in Reggie Gilliam. The Steelers will be tested, and if they falter, the Patriots will have the edge.

Prediction

Steelers: 17
Patriots: 14

Season Prediction Record:

1-0