Republican Representative Ashley Hinson publicly broke with President Donald Trump as she called for an immediate end to the Iran war on Monday, hours before new polling showed her trailing Democrat Josh Turek in Iowa’s U.S. Senate race.
Hinson, who the president said would “be an outstanding Senator” when he announced his endorsement last September, wrote on X, “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran.”
“We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices,” she said, before listing suggestions such as suspending the gas tax and pausing diesel exports.
Read More on News
“These actions to lower costs are needed ASAP, and the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end,” Hinson added.
In his endorsement of Hinson’s Senate bid, Trump wrote, “I know Ashley well, and she is a WINNER!” He added, “Ashley is a wonderful person, has ALWAYS delivered for Iowa, and will continue doing so in the United States Senate.”
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment via email.
A new Marist poll released on Tuesday found that 50 percent of registered voters in Iowa back Hinson’s Democratic opponent, compared with 42 percent for Hinson.
The two are competing to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst in a contest that could help determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Timothy Hagle, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa, told Newsweek that he doesn’t put “too much stake in polls.” He said despite Iowa having several competitive races, it’ll be an “uphill effort” for Democrats to win those races because Republicans have more registered voters. Ultimately, though, he said Iowa’s independent voters will decide who wins or loses those races because they’re less concerned with politics and more concerned with economic issues.
“That usually means that candidates need to focus more on those issues for the general election campaign. Add to that how farmers, who are more often Republicans, have been hurting due to higher gas prices and it means that some Republican officeholders are concerned that the base might be less than enthusiastic about the election and might stay home,” Hagle said.
He said Hinson may be breaking with Trump a little bit to attract the independent voters, and assure people that she’s working to alleviate the financial problems facing Americans. However, she has to walk a fine line, according to Hagle, because she also can’t alienate Trump’s base.
How Much Is Ashley Hinson Breaking With Trump?
Hinson’s campaign website still includes Trump’s full endorsement message on its first page, under the heading “Standing With President Trump.”
David Redlawsk, a professor of political science at the University of Delaware, told Newsweek he doubts Hinson’s post on X “signals some major break with Trump.”
“There is little evidence that Hinson has truly repudiated Trump in any significant way. To me this is simply a campaign tactic to try to bring in some more middle-of-the-road voters,” Redlawsk told Newsweek on Tuesday.
Redlawsk added that historically, it was not uncommon for a candidate to break with a same-party president for electoral advantage, and usually doing so did not signal a major change in direction.
However, her recent comments about the Iran war follow other instances that suggest a growing willingness to publicly challenge the president on issues affecting Iowa voters.
Last month, Hinson spoke out against Trump’s decision to temporarily lift tariffs on beef from several countries in an effort to bring down prices for consumers.
She argued that cheaper foreign beef could undercut American ranchers at a time when the U.S. cattle herd was already at a 75-year low, and that the administration should instead help domestic producers rebuild their herds.
“I think it’s a bad idea the way we’re trying to handle this,” Hinson said at the Iowa State Fair. “It should be driven by market conditions.”
At the recent Republican National Convention in Dallas, which Hinson attended, the president implored his supporters to pretend he’s on November’s ballot. When later asked by a local journalist whether a vote for Hinson would be a vote for Trump, the Senate candidate answered, “A vote for me is a vote for commonsense policies, and no matter who is in the White House, that’s what I’m going to focus on.”
In a campaign ad released last week, Hinson emphasized her willingness to work with Democrats, saying, “It used to be that reaching across the aisle wasn’t just OK; it was expected.”
“Some people in Washington forget that. I never have,” she said. “That’s why I worked with Democrats to expand mental health care for veterans and with President Trump to take on health insurance companies to lower your costs.”
She added, “Working across the aisle isn’t always easy, but it’s how you get results.”
On Friday, Vice President JD Vance praised Hinson as an “amazing public servant” at a rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa. Hinson did not attend the rally because of previously scheduled events, her campaign said.
What Is Trump’s Standing in Iowa?
Trump carried Iowa by about 13 percentage points in 2024, but recent polls show more voters disapprove than approve of his performance as president, including the recent Marist poll that showed Turek, a state lawmaker, with an 8-point lead.
Some 41 percent of 1,050 registered voters surveyed between September 17 and 20 approved of Trump’s job performance, while 58 percent disapproved. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Despite Trump’s underwater approval rating, Iowa voters still expect a Republican victory in the Senate race, according to the Marist poll. It found that 59 percent believed Hinson would win, compared with 37 percent who are expecting a Turek victory. Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008.
A recent Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll also found 44 percent approved of Trump’s job performance while 52 percent disapproved. The survey, which questioned 750 likely voters between August 31 and September 1, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
The president’s underwater rating among Iowa voters could present a challenge for Republicans defending seats in the Hawkeye State this November—though it’s important to note that polls have been known to underestimate Trump’s popularity. The president has outperformed preelection expectations in three presidential campaigns.
Speaking about the shift in Trump’s general approval rating, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle previously told Newsweek: “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes, Shakeema Edwards, Gray R. Thomas.