What will soon become Tropical Storm Nolo south of Hawaii is forecast to intensify into a hurricane and could be the strongest to strike so close to the Big Island this weekend since the late 1950s.
This will be Hawaii’s fourth tropical system of the 2026 hurricane season, which would once again hit parts of the state with heavy rain and gusty winds.
Where is it now?
Right now, it’s Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, centered about 300 miles south of the Big Island, moving to the west-northwest.
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It is becoming better organized and once its winds reach 40 mph, it will be called Tropical Storm Nolo, not to be confused with Polo, an Eastern Pacific hurricane closer to Mexico.
What is the forecast?
The current forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center is shown below.
(MORE: What a forecast cone really means)
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Nolo is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday, and a major hurricane (at least Category 3) by this weekend, if not sooner.
Its track is not as clear.
Nolo is expected to turn north starting Thursday, then at some point later Friday or Saturday, bend sharply west.
But when and how sharp that westward bend takes place is critical.
If that westward turn happens later or is less sharp, that could bring the core of Nolo’s strongest winds closer or into parts of the Big Island by Saturday. If that turn happens sooner and more sharply, that would keep Nolo’s strongest winds south of the Big Island,
Impacts will occur in at least parts of the main islands, regardless of how close Nolo’s center tracks and whether or not it ever makes a landfall.
Potential impacts
Flooding rainfall
Either scenario brings a threat of substantial rainfall to the Big Island and parts of Maui County. where flood watches are now in effect.
And at least locally heavy rain could fall well in advance of the closest approach of Nolo.
Here are the peak rainfall forecasts from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. These peak totals are most possible over mountain slopes:
Parts of the Big Islands: Up to 35 inchesParts of Maui: Up to 20 inchesRest of islands: Up to 6 inches
This could lead to life-threatening, potentially locally catastrophic flash flooding and landslides on the Big Island and Maui, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The Big Island and parts of Maui County were hit hard by flooding, landslides and strong winds from Hurricane Lala in mid-August.
Winds
The map below shows the chance of at least tropical storm force winds (39 mph or higher) from Nolo.
Given its forecast track, the best chance of winds capable of at least some tree damage and power outages is in the eastern islands, from the Big Island to Maui County.
As alluded to before, there’s also a threat of hurricane force winds in parts of the Big Island, depending on how close the center of Nolo tracks. These winds may be capable of more serious damage to homes and businesses.
Also, wind gusts will likely be stronger both atop and downwind of mountain slopes in the entire island chain.
Coastal flooding, high surf
Larger swells are expected to arrive from the storm by Friday, which will lead to dangerous surf and rip currents.
Nolo’s approach will also bring a threat of coastal flooding to parts of the Big Island coast.
Big Island’s strongest hurricane in decades?
Only one other major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane has tracked within 150 miles of the Big Island, according to NOAA’s hurricane database.
That was August 1959’s Hurricane Dot, which went on to slam into Kauai after brushing south of the Big Island.
So, Nolo could be the strongest Big Island lashing from a hurricane in 67 years.
Fourth potential flood event
This system will become the fourth to at least graze Hawaii, bringing flooding and winds to parts or most of the state.
We first had Hurricane Lala in mid-August, whose eyewall grazed the southern end of the Big Island. Torrential rain hit and gusty winds caused power outages to skyrocket.
(MORE: Lala Recap)
Next up was Tropical Storm Moke, which tracked farther south than Lala but still hit part of the Big Island with rain and winds from its outer bands. Moke’s impacts were less significant, but flooding still occurred because the ground was still saturated from Lala.
Then there was Hurricane Lowell, a powerful hurricane that reached Category 5 strength at its peak. The storm weakened before making its closest pass, but it slammed the western islands with wind, rain and waves.
(MORE: Lowell Recap)
Zombie storm
This system originally formed as Tropical Depression Fifteen-E on Sept. 13 well southeast of Hawaii.
The system then fizzled as it traveled west, moving into strong wind shear that disrupted its structure.
But the system continued its trek west and now has moved into areas with less shear, allowing for its second life.