MONTPELIER, Vt. (WCAX) – A new political poll shows Gov. Phil Scott trailing in the governor’s race.
The Green Mountain State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows that if the election were held on Thursday, Amanda Janoo would be the winner. The Democrat gets support from 49% of those surveyed. The five-time incumbent Republican gets 43%.
The snapshot in time represents a departure from years past, where Scott has been elected by wide margins thanks to strong support from Vermont Democrats.
With six weeks to Election Day, the poll represents a shift in voter sentiment. Experts say it’s a mix of local and national factors.
“For Scott to be able to survive, he certainly has a bit of a hill to climb,” said Sean McKinley, UNH Survey Center project director.
Pollsters say Janoo’s standing is due to a confluence of factors, including strong Democratic voter interest in a year where many are showing up to vote against the policies of President Donald Trump.
Scott’s approval rating slips among Democrats
Scott has won re-election by wider margins every election cycle starting in 2016, peaking last year. The moderate Republican has typically drawn much of his support from voters who usually back Democrats, but that is no longer the case.
According to the poll, Scott’s overall approval rating has slipped from 67% at the end of the pandemic to 47% now.
“His approval rating among Republicans has been climbing as the years have gone on, and among Democrats it’s declining. It’s now the lowest since we’ve been keeping track,” McKinley said.
The poll sets the stage for a competitive race.
“It’s a fluid race certainly. Things can change here. But if I’m Phil Scott, I should be worried,” said Matt Dickinson, Middlebury College political science professor.
Dickinson said the poll highlights enthusiasm among voters who are pushing back on Trump administration and Republican policies coming out of Washington, but also lingering issues in Vermont.
“Republicans made inroads in the last election by addressing affordability. It’s not clear they’ve followed through on that. And they may be paying a price for that,” Dickinson said.
Pollsters say there is a chance this can change in the coming weeks. The poll shows the percentage of people who don’t know Janoo is higher than the number of undecided voters. Pollsters say a more competitive race could help drive voter turnout.
Other statewide races
In the race for Vermont’s number two, former Lt. Gov. Molly Gray is leading incumbent Republican John Rodgers by 14 points, 54% to 40%.
In the race for U.S. House, incumbent Democrat Becca Balint is leading Republican Gerald Malloy 66% to 30%.
Scott’s campaign staff dispute the poll’s findings and believe the number of Democrats surveyed over-represents Democrats. They note this is just one poll and represents a moment in time.
The random survey of 835 people was conducted through email and text between Sept. 17 and 21, and has a 3.3 percentage point margin of error.
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