Week 3 is here, so it’s time to apply what we learned from Weeks 1 and 2 to make adjustments. This column uses our fantasy football projections model, Freedman’s NFL Betting Game Model, projected roles, injuries, depth-chart changes, and matchup context to identify the players whose Week 3 outlooks are better or worse than previous weeks.
For “start” options, I will avoid obvious names that everyone is starting and focus on fringe options that might be better than their typical ranking. Mostly, I’ll focus on players ranked 24-36, with an emphasis on those moving into that range. For QBs and TEs, the focus will be on players entering the top 12 or nearly making it in for Week 3.
A “sit” is not always a must-bench. It means that player is a downgrade relative to their rest-of-season outlook and may be worth fading for a similarly ranked option in more favorable spots.
If you haven’t read the Utilization Report yet, it is my weekly piece where I break down usage changes and trends for every team. I covered over 80 players for Week 3. Much of what you see here around Utilization comes from that piece, so go check it out for more juicy nuggets.
Start These Quarterbacks In Week 3 Fantasy Football
Tyler Shough | Saints
The Saints players have been referring to Shough as “Poor Man” after the Ravens’ defensive coordinator called him a “poor man’s Josh Allen” after Week 1. And you know what? The underlying Utilization data points to some truth in that statement—at least from a usage perspective.
Shough ranks second in the NFL in designed rush attempts at 15%, trailing only Allen at 22%. That comes out to 3.5 designed totes per contest for Shough, who also scrambles 2.0 times per game. The second-year QB is tied with Josh Allen for attempts per game inside the five-yard line at 1.0.
Through two games, Shough is averaging 15.5 rushing yards with 4.5 fantasy points per game on the ground, thanks to the score. It is a small sample, but Shough flashed rushing upside at the end of last season, and if opportunities inside the five stick, he could score 5-7 rushing TDs.
When you add that to the passing yardage Shough is compiling, with 294 per game and 1.5 TDs per game when excluding overtime from Week 1, things are looking very good. Whether Shough can keep up those passing numbers is debatable, but with this sort of role, his ceiling and floor improve.
Historically, balanced-archetype QBs who average 2.5-5.5 points per game on the ground have been the second-most likely archetype behind dual threats (5.5+ rushing points per game) to become league winners in fantasy football.
So far, Shough is averaging 19.3 PPG excluding overtime. QBs averaging 18-20 points have finished QB8 over the last three seasons in the modern era of lower passing-yardage totals.
This week, Shough faces the Raiders, who have held down the struggling pass attacks of the Dolphins and Chargers, allowing only 206 yards and 0.5 TDs per game. But the Saints carry the 10th-highest team total on the weekend at 23.6 as 3-point favorites.
Fantasy Projections
Shough ascends to top-12 status as my QB11, ahead of names like Justh Herbert and Matthew Stafford for Week 3.
Sit These Quarterbacks In Week 3 Fantasy Football
Matthew Stafford | Rams
Stafford made this column as a start last week, which he paid off with 28 fantasy points. But this week, he faces a Broncos defense that is best attacked on the ground. In Week 1, the Chiefs rode Kenneth Walker III to a victory, and last week, Jacksonville saw their high-flying attack grounded. Trevor Lawrence finished with 189 yards and zero TDs, scoring 7.2 points.
Matchups are often overrated based on the historical data I have researched. Team totals and historical production carry more weight. But we want to pay attention to outlier defenses—they matter. But usually, the totals and spreads reflect that.
The Broncos are an outlier good defense. They have been strong for multiple seasons. Last year they held opposing passing attacks 26 yards below their passing average. But most importantly, they held QBs to almost a half-TD less passing per game—the third-toughest matchup.
And we see that showing up in the Rams’ team total this week of 20.9. That is very low for an offense we see in the 28-30 range in neutral to good matchups.
If the Rams are without Puka Nacua, my outlook on Stafford will drop further.
Fantasy Projections
After being my QB7 last week, Stafford falls to QB15 in Week 3 against Denver.
Week 3 Fantasy QB DowngradesJustin Herbert | Chargers: Herbert is averaging only 206 yards with one TD per game via the air. He has the highest pressure rate in the NFL (46%), and it’s happening fast. His average time to pressure is 2.49 seconds, the 10th-fastest. The Bills have boosted opponent passing TDs by 1.1 per game over their last four outings dating back to 2025, so there is a chance Herbert gets on track in Week 3. With the offense clearly not in sync, Herbert falls to mid-range QB2 status.Running Backs To Start In Week 3 Fantasy Football
Chuba Hubbard | Panthers
With Jonathon Brooks (groin) headed to IR, Hubbard is in the captain’s chair in Carolina. And we have already received 19.1 PPG with Hubbard sharing some of the workload with Brooks.
Over those two games, Hubbard has a 66% snap share, 56% rush share, 50% route share, and an 8% target share.
Hubbard has been a bit lucky, catching a TD pass in each contest so far. In an offense leading the NFL in dropback rate over expected (DBOE) at 11%, he’s had only 11 attempts per game. A role very reminiscent of the Bengals RB1 in recent seasons.
The sixth-year RB isn’t a great receiving option with a 12% targets per route run (TPRR), especially with Jalen Coker emerging as a primary weapon alongside Tetairoa McMillan. Still, due to the high passing volume, he is averaging 2.5 targets per game.
With Brooks out, I think Hubbard pushes toward an 80% snap share with AJ Dillon as his only competition for touches. That should push him from 13.5 opportunities per game into the 16-20 range.
Carolina faces the Browns this weekend, and while they are 2.5- to 3.0-point favorites according to oddsmakers, if the Panthers offense stays hot, we could see a bigger lead, and Hubbard could get more attempts.
Fantasy Projections
Hubbard projects as a high-end RB2 and is my RB17. He should be in starting lineups in almost every league. Maybe not the six-team one my daughter plays in.
RBs Who Bombed In Week 2 But I Am Starting in Week 3 Fantasy FootballDavid Montgomery | Texans: Montgomery scored 4.4 points in Week 2. I noted that he was a sell-high after Week 1, but this performance makes him look like a buy-low. Montgomery low-key got almost all of the two-minute offense (16 snaps) over Woody Marks in Week 2. That didn’t protect Montgomery from a bad game script last weekend, but historically it is a good sign. Montgomery is a mid-range RB2 vs. the Colts, who provide a 3.8 PPG boost to opposing ground games.RB Upgrades for Week 3TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots: Henderson took advantage of a Rhamondre Stevenson fumble on the first drive by ripping a 45-yard TD sprint on the second possession. He handled 67% of the attempts. This rotation should be tighter, and we could see a hot-hand approach. Henderson has secured six top-24 RB finishes in 7 of 8 career games with at least 50% of attempts. Henderson UPGRADES to borderline RB2 territory against the Jaguars in Week 3. RB Injury Watch For Week 3 In Fantasy FootballSaquon Barkley | Eagles: Barkley was knocked out of action in Week 2 with a stinger. If he can’t play, Tank Bigsby moves into the low-end RB2 conversation against the Bears.
Pittsburgh RBs | Steelers: Rico Dowdle is in a walking boot due to a toe injury and did not practice on Wednesday. Jaylen Warren was limited in practice due to a shoulder injury. The Bengals defense is holding down RBs in the run game but has been susceptible against the pass, giving up 12.1 PPR points per game in the air—the fourth-most. If Warren is practicing in full by the end of this week and is the lone active back for Week 3, he will be a mid-range to high-end RB2. Eli Heidenreich is the name to remember in SICKO leagues if both starting RBs are inactive. Heidenreich is a great passing-game weapon.
Denver RBs | Broncos: All three Broncos RBs are questionable for Week 3. Dobbins (hip) and Harvey (hamstring) were limited in practice on Wednesday. Harvey missed Week 2, and Dobbins was knocked out of the game. Coleman showed up with a surprise ankle injury and didn’t practice Wednesday. We’ll have to monitor this, but if any one of these backs emerges as Denver’s lone option in Week 2, they would be RB2s. If we have a duo, think high-end RB3s, but all could be at risk of re-injury or lacking efficiency against a solid Rams defense.
Aaron Jones | Vikings: Jones is dealing with a knee issue that kept him from practicing on Wednesday. He handled 80% of the snaps last week with Jordan Mason on IR and is an RB2 if playing. If Jones can’t go, we could have a split backfield between DeeJay Dallas and Demond Claiborne. Claiborne is the name to claim off the waiver wire—the rookie could surprise and wrangle a significant rest-of-season role if he performs well.
Jadarian Price | Seahawks: Price was limited in practice on Wednesday with a chest injury that knocked him out of action in Week 2. If he can’t play, Emanuel Wilson could handle the early-down work with George Holani operating as the pass-down option. Wilson saw an uptick in utilization in Week 2, but Holani was not playing late due to a knee injury that limited him in practice on Wednesday. The Seahawks are 7-point favorites over the Commanders, who are boosting rushing attacks by 2.1 PPG. Wilson would be a low-end RB2 if he has the backfield to himself against the Commanders. Price is a high-end RB3 if practicing in full and active.RB SICKO STARTS For Week 3 Fantasy Football
These players are for you deeper-league SICKOS, in 14- 16-team or 12-team leagues where you have 2-3 flex spots. These players are available in over 50% of Yahoo leagues and aren’t in many starting lineups, but they offer a ray of light. You could get lucky.
Kaleb Johnson | Packers: Johnson led the Packers with a 44% rush share in Week 2 thanks to a MarShawn Lloyd fumble. With Lloyd struggling, the door is open for the 2025 Round 3 NFL pick to take over the early-down work. The Packers are 7-point favorites in Freedman’s model with the No. 8 team total (23.7). Johnson is a mid-range RB4 with RB2 upside and is available in 93% of Yahoo leagues.
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