Democratic nominee Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins (Photos by Daryn Slover/Staff Photographer and J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press)

Just over a month before Election Day, Sen. Susan Collins has opened up a narrow lead over Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine’s Senate race. 

A new New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found the five-term Republican incumbent ahead of Jackson for the first time, 49% to 46%. But the three-point lead is still within the margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. 

The survey of 619 registered voters was conducted Sept. 15-22 — largely before ProPublica published an explosive report about an FBI corruption probe tied to Collins and other lawmakers that was dropped after President Donald Trump took office. A different survey of 650 likely Maine voters, released Thursday by UMass Lowell/YouGov, found that Jackson was leading by five points.

Still, The NYT/Press Herald/Siena poll shows positive movement toward Collins, who trailed former Democratic nominee Graham Platner by two points in a similar survey in June. And it’s the first lead for Collins in an independent poll since Jackson was named the Democratic nominee in July.  

The results contain other warning signs for Jackson, who was thrust into the race in July after Platner withdrew amid allegations of sexual assault that Platner denied.  

A number of respondents indicated they plan to support Collins, even though a majority (55%) said they want Democrats to win control of the U.S. Senate. And 92% percent of Democrats said they were enthusiastic about the midterms, compared to 88% of Republicans.

Five percent of respondents were undecided — a slight increase from 3% in June.

The disparity suggests that Collins remains a strong candidate despite national political headwinds for Republicans caused by Trump’s flagging popularity.

Interviews with respondents show that some Democrats are struggling with their decision in Maine’s race, despite clearly wanting their party to come out on top this fall.  

Margaret “Peggy” Daigle, a 73-year-old Democrat from East Millinocket, said she wants her party to control the Senate to push back against the Trump administration. 

But Daigle said she’s not sold on Jackson. Instead, she said she’s leaning toward Collins because she thinks the incumbent is better positioned to work across the aisle. 

“This administration is going to leave us with a lot of problems that we have to fix,” Daigle said. “There has to be a thoughtful strategy in trying to right the ship and correct the errors that have been made.”

In Jackson, she said, “I see somebody that is going to struggle building coalitions down in D.C.” 

But John Treutel, a 67-year-old Hartland Democrat, said he can no longer support Collins, which he did in 2020 while also casting his presidential ballot for Democrat Joe Biden. 

This fall, Treutel said he plans to vote for Jackson, even though he doesn’t know much about the candidate.

“(My vote) is partially a protest vote against the current Republican administration and partially a protest vote against the current Republican members who are unwilling to hold them in check,” Treutel said. “I find Troy Jackson to be a very acceptable option in a very stormy season.”

The survey found that the share of respondents who have a positive view of Collins has increased since June. Fifty-one percent view Collins favorably, compared to 41% for Jackson. 

That’s a three-point improvement for Collins since the summer and puts her on par with her favorability rating in 2020 — when she defied public polling and Democratic spending to defeat former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon.  

This year, Republicans hold a clear funding advantage, which will make it more difficult for Democrats to turn the tide through paid ads.  

Republican-aligned groups have spent or reserved nearly $165 million in ads in Maine this cycle, compared to the nearly $123 million by Democrat-aligned groups, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact. The poll suggests that the Republicans’ spending advantage may be having an effect, boosting positive perceptions of Collins while casting Jackson in negative light by highlighting his temper, his son’s job as a lobbyist and blaming him for increased costs.

Collins’ favorability rating stands in stark contrast to voters’ views of Trump’s job performance, which have only dimmed since June amid ongoing inflation and higher gas prices. The survey found that 66% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s performance and only 32% approved. 

“At the end of the day, I feel Susan Collins really is the best bet for Maine at the moment,” said John Toomey, a 29-year-old Republican from Springvale who supports Trump. “I just trust Susan Collins more.”

Tara Wheeler, a 44-year-old Portland Democrat, said she’s leaning toward Jackson, while cautioning that “it’s also very close for me.”

Wheeler said she has personally benefited from Collins’ effort to protect federal funding that had been placed on the chopping block by the Trump administration. She credited the Republican with saving a federal research grant that funds her job at a local university. 

“She’s gotten some good concessions,” Wheeler said. 

And Wheeler is concerned that Jackson may be too closely aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, which endorsed his unsuccessful bid for governor this year. (Fifty-one percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of socialism).

But overall, she thinks the logger from northern Maine is more attuned to her concerns about inflation and the high cost of living.

“I think he’s more in touch,” she said.  

The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll of Maine voters was funded with support from the Maine Trust for Local News.