What is the Status of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’?

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Bottom Line Up Front

Nearly three years after the Hamas terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ looks quite different, with some proxy forces reeling as others continue to display robust military capabilities — acting both against Tehran’s regional adversaries and in their own independent interests.
Lebanese Hezbollah, once the crown jewel in the Axis, has been severely degraded by Israeli military operations, although disarming the group will prove to be a Herculean effort that many experts believe is not feasible.
The Houthi movement in Yemen remains embroiled in conflict against Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognized government in Aden, even gaining an edge in its consolidation of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has forced Riyadh to seek military help from its allies to combat their offensive.
With Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) hardliners emboldened and firmly entrenched in power, it is inevitable that Tehran will seek to rebuild its proxy forces in the region, including Axis members in Lebanon, Gaza, and Iraq.

Nearly seven months after the start of the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and nearly three years after the Hamas terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, that plunged the region into near-constant warfare, Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ looks quite different than in the past. All of the Iran-backed proxies comprising the Axis have come under siege — either by punitive economic measures, political pressure, or military action — to varying degrees. While the bulk of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has focused on conventional warfare between Washington and Tehran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has leveraged its forward-defense strategy using its proxy militias throughout the conflict. IRGC trainers and advisers traveled to Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen while the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was being negotiated in June to provide training and equipment to its proxy forces in those countries — indicating the extent to which it relies on these groups for both offensive and defensive operations.

The pressure campaign on Iran-aligned militias in the region has had an effect on degrading some groups’ operational capabilities. But some groups have used this time to garner greater agency and momentum, acting against adversaries they share with Iran.

Lebanese Hezbollah, once the crown jewel in the Axis, has been severely degraded by Israeli military operations, although disarming the group will prove to be a Herculean effort, one that many experts believe is not feasible. Hezbollah has not demonstrated interest in responding to calls for disarmament. In Lebanon, Israel and Hezbollah continue to exchange blows. Two weeks ago, the Israeli military launched an offensive against Ali al-Taher ridge, a strategic tunnel complex used by Hezbollah. As part of a U.S.-mediated ceasefire reached in June, Israel is slated to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon, ultimately being backfilled by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). This is a crucial step in the Lebanese government’s plan to disarm Hezbollah.

The Houthi movement in Yemen is currently the most active member of the Axis, embroiled in a war against the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), the Aden-based, internationally recognized government of Yemen, as well as Saudi Arabia, the primary backer of that government. The Houthis mostly sat on the sidelines for the opening phases of the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran, with some analysts assessing that this was a deliberate decision on behalf of Iran to hold this proxy force back as an ‘ace up its sleeve.’ Whether this was a strategic decision or not, it is now clear that the Houthis have been unleashed, and the group’s military capabilities have further complicated commercial shipping traffic around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

After the October 7 Hamas attacks, the group has intermittently entered the conflict with Israel and used its position at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to disrupt global trade, dealing crushing blows to the global economy and prompting the United States to launch a roughly two-month campaign against Houthi targets. While that operation degraded some of their capabilities, Houthi media also framed it as a victory. So far, the resurgent conflict with the PLC and Saudi Arabia has not seen the group target and disrupt the vessels in the waterway through which roughly a tenth of global trade passes.

As reported by Bloomberg, with equipment and parts from China, the Houthis now have the capability to manufacture weapons within Yemen, making the group less reliant on Iranian patronage and state support. China helps in both direct and indirect ways. Chinese companies supply dual-use goods that can be employed for both civilian and military purposes, and Chinese components are essential to the Houthis’ increasingly sophisticated drone program. Beijing also supplies Tehran with dual-use components that provide a boost to Iran’s drone program. Through IRGC trainers and advisers, Tehran further augments the capabilities of its proxy forces.

In Iraq, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has vowed to disarm Iran-backed Iraqi militias, even as these groups continue to carry out Tehran’s bidding, most recently joining the fray alongside the Houthis to launch armed drones against Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline. As with Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas, disarming Iraqi Shia militias is going to be an extremely difficult challenge for the Iraqi government. These groups have become part of the fabric of the Iraqi state, boast political legitimacy, and play a crucial role in areas beyond the reach of the government in Baghdad. These groups now often release claims of responsibility for attacks under the umbrella name Islamic Resistance in Iraq.

Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Sunni Islamist Palestinian terrorist groups that receive significant funding and backing from Iran, have been dealt a crushing but far from fatal blow in the sustained military campaign by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) since the October 7 Hamas attacks. According to Israeli sources, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir shared with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz earlier this month that the group had effectively been “defeated” and is now a “defeated organization.” Simultaneously, Israeli Military Intelligence and leaked IDF documents, continues to note that the terror group is attempting to rebuild its strength in Gaza, while on paper engaging with the Board of Peace to advance a ceasefire reached last October which includes the group’s disarmament.

The sustained campaign against Iranian-backed militias has spurred a displacement effect, with Iranian proxy groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and Kataib Hezbollah, all having conducted or having attempted to conduct external operations in Europe, including but not limited to terrorist attacks. Earlier this month, Germany indicted seven men for a Hamas plot that was supposed to coincide with the October 7 attack anniversary, targeting the Israeli embassy in Berlin, as well as host of Jewish institutions and pro-Israel demonstrations. The Iran-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah also has worked to conduct attacks against Jewish targets in Europe, particularly through the shadowy front organization Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI).