A leading Middle East policy expert warned that Israel’s upcoming election could influence the region’s security and governance agenda amid ongoing conflicts at a Georgetown University event Sept. 22.

Natan Sachs, former director of the Brookings Institution’s Center for Middle East policy, analyzed Israel’s current political moment at the event, which was hosted by Georgetown’s Center for Jewish Civilization (CJC). Sachs argued that the Oct. 27 election — which will be Israel’s first since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack — could lead to dramatic shifts in Israeli politics. 

Sachs said the October contest is potentially the most significant election in Israel’s history.

“In every single election in Israel, they say it’s the most consequential election of a lifetime,” Sachs said at the event. “This time, there is a feeling that this may be true. The stakes have just become so high that the question is so fundamental.”

Military and political tensions in the Middle East have intensified since the 1948 establishment of the state of Israel. The current Israel-Hamas war began when the militant group attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and Israel launched a military response throughout Gaza. 

The resulting conflict has displaced at least 80% of the Gaza Strip’s population and resulted in the deaths of over 70,000 people, prompting a widespread humanitarian crisis. In July 2026, Hamas and other armed groups in the Gaza Strip promised to disarm as part of a ceasefire, but airstrike raids and shootings have continued between Hamas and Israeli forces.

Sachs said that while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be trailing his opponent, former Israeli Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, in the polls, the results remain unpredictable because no political party has a clear lead.

“If you look at the polls right now, there is a very steady majority of Israelis wanting out,” Sachs said. “However, when you look at both sides, neither are at the head of the opposition, and no single opposition has a clear path to forming a government, with there being a possibility of a deadlock.”

Israel’s government uses a parliamentary system with a 120-member representative body. Since no party has yet achieved a governing majority, Israel’s various factions must form coalitions supported by at least 61 congressional members.

Sachs said if any member of Netanyahu’s opposition block — including coalition leaders Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman — wins the vote, the results could significantly change Israel’s regional relationships, possibly improving cooperation with Jordan and Egypt. 

“In terms of the regional relations, we could see a very big difference depending on the election’s outcome,” Sachs said. “Eisenkot or Bennett or even Lieberman would have, I think, a very different approach to many of the regional partners.” 

Sachs said studying Israeli politics requires sensitivity and understanding of the current conflict. 

“I think Israel looms so large in the conversations these days in the United States, and often a lot of things are assumed about it,” Sachs said. “It’s very worth treating it and dealing with it as a real place that needs to be studied and understood, regardless of one’s position towards it. Anyone who cares about Israel should also understand it as a real place with real people, regardless of one’s attitude towards it.”

Sachs said his experience growing up in Jerusalem showed him the importance of a peaceful solution between Israel and Palestine.

“I grew up in Jerusalem in the 1980s and 1990s, and like very many people, I knew many people who were directly affected by the conflict,” Sachs said. “I’ve lost loved ones, and I think that affected dramatically how I approach it, especially in my belief that trying to find a more peaceful future is absolutely paramount — between Israelis and Palestinians, but also between Israelis and others.”

Yazen Zaroer (GRD ’27), a master’s student in the Arab studies program who attended the event, said he is unsure a regime change in Israel would amount to a meaningful impact for Palestinians.

“To see that maybe the election could result in something different is interesting, especially if you ask Palestinians, who might say that, to them, any Israeli leader is, at the end of the day, an Israeli leader and wouldn’t make much of a difference,” Zaroer told The Hoya.

Sachs said he hopes Georgetown’s commitment to international affairs and public discourse leads to more respectful discourse about the Israel-Hamas war.

“The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has taken a place that has almost left reality and become a symbol of people’s own domestic questions, moral questions,” Sachs said. “It’s become a litmus test for things that have nothing to do with the people there. I think it would behoove us all to remember that this is not about us. It’s not about what we’re signaling about ourselves or about our politics or about primaries in the United States. It’s about real people there.”

“Treating it as a real place that needs to be studied as empirically and dispassionately as possible, I think, is the crucial principle,” Sachs added.