With sabotage, cyberattacks and airspace violations across Europe mushrooming, fears are growing that Putin could escalate further, according to two NATO diplomats, who were granted anonymity to speak freely.
Anxiety is also palpable on Spitsbergen. In Barentsburg, “we don’t speak about [political] topics,” said a waitress from St. Petersburg who asked that her name not be used, while acknowledging locals fear a potential NATO-Russia war. “Of course this worries us,” she said.
“There is of course this constant chatter about if the Russian government wants to push a NATO member and Svalbard is the place where they would do it,” said Jonatan Svensson, an expedition guide who has lived in Longyearbyen for five years.
Jonatan Svenssson. | Victor Jack/POLITICO
To assuage those fears, NATO should consider air patrols over Svalbard, shift defensive air assets to the north of mainland Norway and hold joint exercises nearby, the two NATO diplomats said, provided Oslo agreed and the measures complied with the Svalbard Treaty.
However, so far NATO has no public plans to boost its naval or air presence around the islands. But some worry the alliance’s current posture won’t be enough to deter Moscow.
In theory, it would be “really easy” for Russia to occupy Svalbard, said Ståle Ulriksen, a lecturer at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, if it flew in special forces from northern Russia and seized the airport. However, he argued such a scenario is unlikely.
Yet Moscow wouldn’t need to launch a full occupation. According to Myklebost, the analyst, Russia could stage an emergency affecting its local citizens and send in crisis management forces, a move that may not clearly trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause.
“A worst-case scenario is a situation where Moscow sees an opportunity to test NATO cohesion,” she said. “Maybe Norway’s shouting for help from allies, and then you have Donald Trump saying: ‘No — we are not risking our good deals with Russia over this tiny island.’”