When Republicans corruptly redrew Texas’ congressional map to try to nix as many as five Democratic seats, it was the 9th District that they expected to be the easiest flip.
That seat, held by Democratic Rep. Al Green, went from one that former Vice President Kamala Harris won by 44 percentage points in 2024 to one that President Donald Trump carried by nearly 20 points.
Texas’ GOP Senate candidate Ken PaxtonAP
But a poll released Wednesday showed that Republicans are struggling even in this seat, as Trump’s approval rating continues to plummet thanks to Americans’ anger over his mishandling of the economy.
The survey, which came from Democratic nominee Leticia Gutierrez’s campaign, found her trailing GOP nominee Alex Mealer at 45% to 39%. Her campaign released the data to show that even this district remains close.
Indeed, the Cook Political Report moved the race onto the board of competitive seats last week, designating the district as Likely Republican—or one that Republicans are clearly favored in but could lose if a blue wave grows big enough.
Of course, the underfunded Democrat polling at 39% is not a great sign for the outcome of the race. But that wasn’t the number that caught my eye from this survey.
Aside from asking about the House race, the pollster also looked at how the district is voting in the Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.
And that number should send shivers down the GOP’s spine.
Texas’ Democratic Senate candidate James TalaricoAP
The poll found Paxton leading Talarico by just 1 point, at 48% to 47%.
It’s seats like the 9th District where Paxton needs to run up his numbers to pad his statewide margin. And if this poll is right, then boy is that dude in trouuuuubleee.
Trump’s super PAC is spending nearly $200,000 on attack mailers against Gutierrez, which may be a backwards way of helping Paxton—as Trump’s political operatives hope that 9th District voters would back Paxton while also voting against Gutierrez.
Ultimately, this is just another data point that reveals how badly Republicans are struggling in the midterms—and that Blexas is no longer just a sparkle in Democrats’ eyes but a real possibility.
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