The Scout analyses the Man City and Arsenal’s stars home stats, ahead of home fixtures against Spurs and Leeds

Erling Haaland (£14.0m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) have the form and fixture respectively to outscore Mohamed Salah (£14.5m) as captain in Gameweek 2 of Fantasy Premier League.

Salah was the most-picked captain in Gameweek 1 for Liverpool‘s home encounter against AFC Bournemouth, with 3.6million managers placing their trust in the Egyptian.

Although he scored and earned those managers 16 captaincy points, Salah faces a far tougher fixture this time around when the Reds visit Newcastle United on Monday evening.

The Magpies ranked joint-top for clean sheets in home matches in 2024/25, with their total of eight matched by Nottingham Forest. 

Manchester City’s Haaland and Arsenal‘s Saka, by contrast, have their first home matches of the season in Gameweek 2.

Haaland enters a meeting with Tottenham Hotspur on the back of two goals and 13 points against Wolverhampton Wanderers last weekend.

Saka certainly has the better fixture of the pair, against promoted Leeds United on Saturday evening.

Similarly to Saka, Aston Villa forward Ollie Watkins and Manchester United‘s Bruno Fernandes (both £9.0m) can bounce back from their weekend blanks.

Both are on their travels, though, as Villa visit Brentford and Man Utd head to Fulham. 

How did Haaland and Saka compare in home matches last season?

Essentially, the table below shows Saka and Haaland were near-identical for output when starting home matches last season, with the Arsenal star having the slightest of advantages by 7.0 to 6.8 points per start.

Saka was also more involved in his side’s goals when selected, scoring or assisting 53 per cent of them, compared with Haaland’s 44 per cent.

When it comes to goal threat, though, the Man City star is far more likely to reward you, with his 11 goals more than TWICE the five of Saka.  

Saka v Haaland comparison, 24/25 home matches

Player
G
A
Goal inv.
Pts per start

Saka
5
5
53%
7.0

Haaland
11
3
44%
6.8

What do the statistics tell us?

An assessment of the duo’s involvement in big chances – situations where the player is expected to score – follows a similar pattern to the table above.

Haaland was supplied with 18 such opportunities and created a further four for his team-mates in home matches last season. 

Although Saka had just eight big chances of his own, his creativity made 13 more for Gunners. As a result, he placed just ONE behind Haaland for total big chance involvement, on 21.

Haaland v Saka big chance comparison, 24/25 home matches

Player 
Big chances
Big chances created
Big chance inv.

Haaland
18
4
22

Saka
8
13
21

So, who is the best captain?

As both the points per start and big chance involvement statistics show, there’s almost nothing between the two big-hitters in home matches.

Ultimately, it’s Haaland’s numbers from the opening weekend that sway the call in his favour – he bettered Saka by six shots in the box to one and three big chances to zero.

That disparity highlights just how sharp the Norwegian looks already and, in that sort of prolific form, he has to be backed to deliver.Â