More charges at the Hague.
Russia Is Planning Its Most Powerful Blow Yet to Try to Freeze Ukraine. Ukraine showed European partners what it said were intercepted Russian plans to cut off major cities from power, heat & water this winter.
Russia did not wait that long. Before dawn on Wednesday, missiles and drones slammed into a large thermal power plant and other energy facilities, shaking the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, with explosions. By morning, several neighborhoods were without power and water.
The attack, Ukrainian officials said, marked the opening salvo of a new campaign to plunge Ukrainian cities into cold and darkness, with the ultimate goal of breaking people’s morale and crippling the war effort. Russia has waged similar campaigns each year, with mixed results, but it is approaching this winter armed with stocks of ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones that Ukraine has struggled to intercept.
The scale of Russia’s ambition to freeze Ukrainians into submission is evident in a document that the Ukrainian energy minister, Denys Shmyhal, showed to European partners in Paris two weeks ago, according to two people familiar with his presentation.
Russian milbloggers are expressing concerns that Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction will hinder Russian attempts to assault Slovyansk from the east – suggesting that Operation Vivaldi not only disrupted Russia’s plans to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt from the Lyman and Dobropillya directions but may also hinder Russian plans to assault the northern Fortress Belt cities frontally.
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A Ukrainian military officer discussed the establishment of a Ukrainian position in the Slovyansk direction that can serve as the basis for future major Ukrainian operations after Operation Vivaldi.
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Russian forces lost control over almost 300 square kilometers between March and September 2026 – a period including Ukraine’s successful Operation Vivaldi, which liberated at least 147 square kilometers over several months.
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Russian forces likely at best gained no ground in exchange for over 46,000 casualties in September 2026 – the highest monthly Russian loss rate so far in 2026.
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Russian forces struck the Southern Bridge in Kyiv City as part of their campaign to destroy the Ukrainian economy and to make life difficult in the Ukrainian capital.
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Russian forces may leverage shaped charges on their long-range drones to strike large, reinforced targets like the Southern Bridge, but such efforts would require repeated, precise strikes over a short period of time to cause significant damage.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on October 1 that Ukrainian forces used the new FP-7 tactical ballistic missile for the first time to strike an unspecific target.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Lyman tactical area.
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Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against military assets and oil infrastructure in Russia. Russia launched 107 drones against Ukraine overnight on September 30 to October 1 and 97 drones during the day on October 1.
Russia struck Kyiv’s Southern Bridge with drones for the first time in the war as a subway train crossed. No passengers were hurt, but subway and bus traffic over the bridge was suspended while crews assessed the damage. meduza.io/en/feature/2…
— Meduza in English (@meduza.io) 2026-10-01T18:22:01.011Z
Russian forces struck the Southern Bridge in Kyiv City as part of their campaign to destroy the Ukrainian economy and to make life difficult in the Ukrainian capital.
Kyiv City Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko reported on October 1 that two Russian drones struck the area near the support structure of the Southern Bridge that spans the Dnipro River and connects the left and right banks of Kyiv City.[7] Klitschko stated that the strikes temporarily suspended metro and surface public transport traffic across the bridge. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces aim to disrupt traffic crossing the bridge and to use repeated strikes against the same area to cause compounding damage to the bridge.[8]
The Russian strike against the Southern Bridge is part of Russia’s wider strike campaign targeting civilian facilities and using both daytime and nighttime strikes to make life in Kyiv City difficult and to disrupt daily civilian functions in the city. The strike also aims to degrade the Ukrainian economy by disrupting the movement of people and cargo through the city.[9]
Pete is lost in terms of modern war. I use the example of this outgunned Ukrainian army officer who successfully terrorized a Russian unit for weeks because she “did the math.”At the time, someone commented, “yeah, in combat, ‘I did the math’ beats ‘I can do 100 pushups’ every time.”
— Brandon Friedman (@brandonfriedman.bsky.social) 2026-09-30T21:53:45.906Z
Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out a ceasefire on long-range strikes with Ukraine as Moscow steps up its campaign of aerial attacks on Kyiv.
“We are told: ‘Let them stop striking your refineries, and you will stop striking their ships.’ It is simply ridiculous,” Putin said on Thursday at the Valdai political forum in Moscow.
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine overnight on September 30 to October 1 and during the day on October 1.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 107 Shahed-type (63 of which were jet-powered) and Gerbera-type strike drones and Parodiya-type decoy drones from the directions of Oryol and Bryansk cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; occupied Donetsk City; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea overnight.[42]
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 87 drones, that Russian drones struck 11 locations, and that downed debris fell on four locations.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces subsequently launched 97 drones (66 of which were jet-powered) during the day on October 1 and that Ukrainian forces downed 78 drones, including 55 jet-powered ones.[43] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck residential, energy, commercial, and education infrastructure in Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Rivne oblasts.[44] Ukrainian state energy operator Ukrenergo reported on October 1 that Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure caused power outages in Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Rivne, and Kirovohrad oblasts.[45]
Russian forces struck the Institute for Nuclear Research of the National Academy of Science in Kyiv City on September 30. The Ukrainian State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate reported that Russian forces struck the Institute for Nuclear Research building in Kyiv City, which houses the Kyiv Research Reactor.[46] The strike caused a fire in the building but did not harm the reactor and critical safety systems. The Institute for Nuclear Research shut down the reactor in 2022 to reduce radiation risks.
Russia launched 97 attack drones at Ukraine during the day on October 1, including 66 jet-powered UAVs and Gerbera drones. Ukrainian air defenses downed or suppressed 78 of the incoming drones, including 55 of the jet-powered targets. #Ukraine
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 2026-10-01T16:09:11.263Z
Zelensky stated on October 1 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian drone launch and storage site in Oryol Oblast, an unspecified oil facility in Samara Oblast, a supply depot in Bryansk Oblast, and a tanker in the Black Sea.[16]
Ukrainian forces are leveraging offshore air defense systems on unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) in the Black Sea to create more time for Ukrainian forces to intercept Russian drones targeting coastal areas. The New York Times (NYT) reported on September 30 that Ukrainian forces are using unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) with surface-to-air missiles to establish air defenses systems in the Black Sea to defend against incoming Russian drones targeting coastal areas such as Odesa Oblast.[47] Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Second Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported on May 20, for example, that the fact that Odessa City sits on the Black Sea makes it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to defend as it is more difficult to place air defenses at sea compared to land-based platforms.
Ukrainian forces have more opportunities to intercept Russian drones that have to travel significant distances over land to their targets, whereas Russian strikes against Odesa Oblast via the Black Sea only allow Ukrainian forces to down the drones when they are very near to their targets and entering their terminal dive approaches.[48]
Russian forces have previously also innovated their long-range drone strike tactics, including by flying Geran-3 drones at higher altitudes to make them more difficult to intercept, likely limiting Ukrainian forces opportunities to defend Odesa Oblast. Sea-based air defenses give Ukrainian forces more time to intercept Russian drones targeting coastal areas, however.
Ukrainian First Deputy Minister for Recovery, Infrastructure, and Transport Serhiy Derkach stated on October 1 that Ukraine aims to construct shelters at all border crossing points by the end of 2026 amidst Russian strikes against crossings along the Ukrainian borders with Poland, Romania, and Moldova.[49]
900 km from the front line.
Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck a Russian oil facility in the Samara region, one of Russia’s largest gas processing and petrochemical plants.
The plant produces raw materials for explosives: benzene, phenol, acetone, and synthetic ethyl alcohol.… pic.twitter.com/2PgQowpv4G
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 1, 2026
Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction will hinder Russian attempts to assault Slovyansk from the east – suggesting that Operation Vivaldi not only disrupted Russia’s plans to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt from the Lyman and Dobropillya directions but may also hinder Russian plans to assault the northern Fortress Belt cities frontally.
A Ukrainian military officer discussed the establishment of a Ukrainian position in the Slovyansk direction that can serve as the basis for future major Ukrainian operations after Operation Vivaldi. The chief of staff of a Ukrainian unmanned systems battalion operating in the Slovyansk direction reported on October 1 that Ukrainian forces are in the final stages of forming a position in an unspecified part of the Slovyansk direction that could become the basis for future larger-scale Ukrainian operations.[3]
«The Bible tells us to love our neighbors, and also to love our enemies; probably because generally they are the same people.»
G.K. Chesterton
The combat losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022 to October 1, 2026. pic.twitter.com/LgwQgd1lRY
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 1, 2026
⚡️ RUSSIA’S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — OCT 1, 2026
■ 10th-highest daily casualties and September’s total the highest this year so far
■ Land-based equipment losses 12% above average, driven by 524 unarmored vehicles
■ Overnight 🇷🇺 attacks: 81% drone interception rate; 15 locations… pic.twitter.com/nooOWkWNXw
— Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) October 1, 2026
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Operational update as at 22:00 on 1 October 2026 regarding the Russian invasion.
In total, 173 combat engagements have taken place since the start of this 24-hour period.
The enemy carried out 63 air strikes, dropping 187 guided bombs. In addition, it deployed 3,994 kamikaze drones and carried out 1,844 shelling attacks on populated areas and the positions of our troops.
Over the past 24 hours, in the Southern Slobozhanshchyna sector, the enemy launched five assaults on the positions of our units near Vovchansk, Chaikivka and in the direction of the settlement of Mala Vovcha.
In the Lyman sector, our defenders successfully repelled two attempts by the invaders to advance in the areas of Nadiya, Novoselivka and Dibrova; another engagement is ongoing.
In the Sloviansk sector, the Defence Forces halted six attempts by the invaders to advance near the settlements of Ozerne, Yampil, Kryva Luka and in the direction of Piskunivka.
On the Kostiantynivka front, the Defence Forces repelled 22 enemy assaults in the areas of Kostiantynivka, Novoselivka, Illinivka, Sofiivka, Vilne and in the direction of Osykove and Hruzke.
A total of 24 attacks were repelled on the Pokrovsk sector. The occupiers attempted to advance in the areas around the settlements of Krasnopodillia, Novyi Donbas, Bilytske, Svitle, Vodyanske, Molodetske and in the direction of Hannivka, Dobropillia, Novohryshyne and Serhiivka.
According to preliminary estimates, 56 occupiers were killed and eight wounded here today; one vehicle, six items of specialist equipment, one drone control centre, a fuel depot and one enemy bunker were destroyed. One vehicle and 64 enemy shelters were damaged. A total of 170 unmanned aerial vehicles of various types were destroyed or neutralised.
Our defenders repelled one attack by the occupiers in the Oleksandrivka sector, near Ternove.
Two enemy assaults were recorded in the Huliaipil sector, in the vicinity of Huliaipil.
In the Orikhiv sector, the Defence Forces repelled three enemy attacks in the direction of Primorske.
In the Northern Slobozhanshchyna, Kupiansk, Kramatorsk and Dnipro sectors, the enemy did not carry out any offensive operations.
In other sectors, there were no significant changes in the situation.
Let us defeat the enemy and bring our Victory closer!
Glory to Ukraine!
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