Tropical Storm Isaias could form in the Gulf later this week, and may bring more soaking rain and wind to parts of the Gulf Coast this weekend.
Where is it now and when could it develop?
An area of low pressure has formed off the coast of eastern Mexico in the southwestern Gulf.
During the next few days, it will be in an environment that appears at least somewhat favorable for development, which could happen as soon as Wednesday or Thursday.
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The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled the first hurricane hunter mission into this system for Wednesday afternoon.
If it becomes a tropical storm (winds of at least 39 mph), it would be called Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs), which would be the ninth storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
(MORE: Hurricane season maps tracker)
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Where will the system go?
It’s too soon to determine exactly where this system will track.
As usual this early, there are various model forecast tracks that range from the upper Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle.
Rain chances will be on the increase by Friday in that region.
Regardless, this could mean additional rain for the already soaked Southeast and Gulf Coast, generally along and to the east of the track of this system.
(MORE: Hurricane preparedness: What you need to know during hurricane season)
What obstacles might this system encounter?
With the jet stream sagging far to the south, this system may have to battle wind shear along the northern Gulf.
You can see the wind shear map below; the colors in darker purple and white indicate strong shear. Wind shear disrupts, weakens and sometimes entirely prevents the development of tropical systems and hurricanes.
However, if the jet stream shifts a little farther north, there could be a window of opportunity for strengthening. That will be something we have to watch closely in the coming days.
What you should do
If you’re near the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, monitor the latest forecast for this system and have your hurricane plans ready to go, just in case.
Despite one of the least active hurricane seasons in years, that doesn’t mean an impactful storm can’t happen this late in the season.
And it doesn’t take a hurricane to trigger major rainfall flooding, as we saw earlier this season with Tropical Storm Arthur’s flooding in the South.
(MORE: Stay prepared this hurricane season)
Storms can still form during strong El Niño years
Even though this hurricane season has proved to be one of the quietest on record, that doesn’t mean we can’t get an impactful tropical system or hurricane.
There have been seasons in the past that have managed to produce strong storms despite a strong El Niño.
The image below shows several hurricanes that have formed during super El Niño seasons from 1972 to 2015.
Selected hurricanes to have occurred during super El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015). Portions of tracks at hurricane and Category 3 and higher intensities are color coded. Note: We omitted 1991 since the El Niño did not reach the super criterion until the three-month period centered on December 1991. Other storms during these years are shown with white tracks.
(NHC/NOAA)