Snow could fall in some parts of the UK next week as weather forecasting models show as much as 5cm settling over higher ground during the first wintry showers of the season
Snow falling (in purple) in the early hours of October 17(Image: WXCHARTS)
The first snow of the season may be just days away from landing in the UK, weather modelling data suggests.
In recent weeks, weather forecasters have warned that this year’s El Nino – expected to be the strongest in living memory – could lead to some extreme wintry conditions over the coming months.
The Met Office has said El Nino may lead to the polar vortex weakening, which in turn could cause Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Despite its name, SSW can lead to extreme cold and heavy snow – and was responsible for the ‘Beast from the East’ in 2018.
The snow is only expected to impact Scotland(Image: WXCHARTS)
Thankfully, there are no indications that such an extreme weather system is coming to the UK anytime soon. However, the GFS weather model now shows the first snow of the season falling on October 16 and October 17.
The data predictably suggests this snow will only impact central and northern Scotland. It is only expected to settle over higher ground, with 5cm possible on Scotland’s highest peaks.
Snow will only settle over higher ground, the data suggests(Image: WXCHARTS)
In total, the GFS model data shows 11 counties in Scotland could see snow next month.
UK counties facing snow in OctoberSutherlandRoss-shire and CromartyshireInverness-shireNairnshireBanffshireAberdeenshireAngusPerthshireArgyllshireDunbartonStirlingshireHow could El Nino bring snow to the UK?
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) – which the Met Office says may occur over the coming months due to El Nino – refers to rapid warming (up to about 50C) in the stratosphere, between 10km and 50km above the Earth.
This process leads to cold air rushing downwards and impacting the jet stream. In turn, this can cause what is known as a ‘blocking pattern’ which keeps snow and cold weather locked in place for an extended period.
Although SSW doesn’t always result in a major blast of snow, the Met Office says a cold snap “follows more often than not”. As well as the Beast from the East in 2018, it also led to extreme cold and snow in 2009-10 and 2013.