Tropical Storm Isaias will become the season’s first Atlantic hurricane before making a significant strike on the northern Gulf Coast with storm surge, rainfall flooding and high winds. It will then spread its heavy rain inland over the East this weekend.
(MORE: Tropical Storm Isaias maps tracker)
Where is Tropical Storm Isaias now?
Isaias is centered in the Gulf over 400 miles south-southwest of New Orleans, moving east-northeast with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.
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It’s expected to become a hurricane by Thursday morning, then rapidly strengthen to at least a Category 2 by Thursday night in the central Gulf.
(MORE: Florida declares state of emergency for 25 counties)
The latest watches
Here are the latest watches from the National Hurricane Center, visible on the graphic below:
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Hurricane watch: Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. These watches also extend inland to some extent over extreme southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Tropical storm watch: Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line south of New Orleans to west of Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, and east of Indian Pass to Aucilla River, Florida. These watches also extend to much of inland southern Alabama and parts of southeast Mississippi north of any hurricane watches.
(MORE: What all these tropical terms mean)
Storm surge watch: Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida
Where Isaias could go and when
Isaias will move toward the northeast through Thursday, before it speeds up and curls northward toward the Gulf Coast.
You can see in the computer model forecast tracks below that the most likely landfall location for Isaias is somewhere from the western Florida Panhandle to the Mississippi Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.
Beyond that, Isaias will get pushed far inland over the Southeast.
Much of the storm’s impacts will likely be along and east of its path.
(MORE: What you need to know during hurricane season)
How strong Isaias could get
Isaias will first benefit from Gulf water temperatures well into the 80s and a moist air mass, both favorable for intensification over the next day or so.
But with the jet stream sagging far to the south, Isaias will have to battle wind shear.
That matters because wind shear is hostile for both developing and active tropical systems.
You can see the wind shear forecast below; the colors in darker purple and white indicate strong wind shear.
Since the wind shear is expected to become stronger the farther north Isaias goes, it is likely to lose some wind intensity closer to landfall.
For now, the most likely intensity near landfall is a Category 2 hurricane.
The potential impacts
The most significant impacts will be felt along and to the east of the storm’s track and its inland remnant. That includes where storm surge flooding, strong winds and isolated tornadoes could be felt near the Gulf Coast before and some time after landfall.
Storm surge
The map below shows how much inundation of normally dry ground may occur near the coast from water pushing in from the Gulf as the center of Isaias moves ashore later Friday into early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
These values represent the peak flood levels if the storm surge happens around high tide.
Winds
Damaging winds are most possible in areas covered by hurricane and tropical storm alerts, shown in the graphic near the top of this article, from extreme southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle.
Strong winds may pick up as soon as midday Friday and continue at least through Saturday morning.
Downed trees, power lines and power outages that could last for hours or multiple days, are possible in these areas.
Rainfall
Heavy rain from Isaias could arrive along the Gulf Coast as soon as Friday, then will push far inland through the rest of the weekend.
As much as 10 inches of rain could fall locally near the Gulf Coast, with most receiving between 3 and 7 inches.
Locally flooding rainfall is possible over most of the Southeast, Appalachians, and parts of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic this weekend.
Tornadoes
As often the case with landfalling hurricanes, there is a threat for tornadoes in outer rainbands as the center approaches land Friday, then possibly again Saturday in parts of the Southeast.
What you should do
If you’re near the Gulf Coast, from southeast Louisiana to Florida, monitor the latest forecast for this system and have your hurricane plans ready to go.
Know if you live in an evacuation zone and what your evacuation route is, if requested to do so by local officials.
Be prepared for power outages that could last at least several hours, or possibly multiple days.
If you’re in the Southeast, including the Appalachians, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, be on the lookout for flash flooding this weekend. Avoid flood-prone areas and never drive into flooded stretches of roads.
Impact risk
The map below shows the general risk from Isaias and its inland remnant, including from rainfall flooding, winds and storm surge near the coast. This map will update throughout the duration of the storm.
The impact levels on the map mean:
“Aware” (yellow): Some significant impacts could occur. Check frequently for forecast updates ahead.”Prepare” (orange): More widespread, significant storm impacts are increasingly possible. Consider stocking up on supplies, plan for potential power outages and know your evacuation or escape routes if you live in an area prone to storm surge or rainfall flooding.”Alert” (red): Storm impacts will arrive soon or are already occurring. Put your preparedness plan into action. Heed any orders from local officials to evacuate and remain in safe shelter until the storm is over.
(MORE: Stay prepared this hurricane season)
How to pronounce Isaias
Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is one of the trickier names to pronounce on this year’s list. To hear the correct pronunciation, listen here.
Isaias replaced “Ike” on one of the Atlantic names lists after that name was retired following the destructive, deadly 2008 hurricane.
It wasn’t used during its first year of eligibility in 2014, since we only reached the eighth name, Hanna, that year.
However, the name was used in 2020 for a storm that eventually tracked up the East Coast with destructive winds.
Named storms of the Gulf so far
While El Niño continues to shred some systems before they form and weaken the ones that do, three storms have battled the conditions to actually get names and impact the Gulf Coast states. These storms may have not been hurricanes, but they did bring heavy rainfall to the region.
All systems like this one need is a window of opportunity with relatively less wind shear, even in El Niño-assisted conditions.
The tracks of Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha and Edouard.
Tropical Storm Arthur was a brief June storm that quickly reached tropical storm strength right before a Texas landfall.
The low fell apart quickly after moving onshore, but its remnants brought torrential rainfall over the Gulf Coast. Arthur actually brought 37.53 inches to Alexandria, Louisiana, which was the wettest rainfall total caused by an Atlantic tropical cyclone.
(MORE: Arthur Recap)
In July, Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the northeast quadrant of the Gulf. It moved to the north before interestingly turning west and striking the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St. Bernard Parish Wednesday afternoon on July 22. Rainfall totals of 1 to 5 inches were widespread with isolated totals exceeding 5 inches.
(MORE: Bertha recap)
The next storm to impact the Gulf was Tropical Storm Edouard, which made landfall on Sept. 1, 2026. Winds were around 60 mph at the time of landfall and heavy rainfall was also reported.
Hurricanes can still form during strong El Niño years
Even though this hurricane season has proved to be one of the quietest on record, that doesn’t mean we can’t get an impactful tropical system or hurricane.
There have been seasons in the past that have managed to produce strong storms despite a strong El Niño.
The image below shows several hurricanes that have formed during super El Niño seasons from 1972 to 2015.
Selected hurricanes to have occurred during super El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015). Portions of tracks at hurricane and Category 3 and higher intensities are color coded. Note: We omitted 1991 since the El Niño did not reach the super criterion until the three-month period centered on December 1991. Other storms during these years are shown with white tracks.
(NHC/NOAA)