ALBANY, N.Y. —
A new Siena Research Institute poll conducted in early October shows a close race between Democrat Blake Gendebien and Republican Anthony Constantino in New York’s 21st Congressional District, which stretches from Saratoga to Watertown.
The poll, conducted for NBC5 News, the Albany Times-Union, and WAMC Radio, surveyed nearly 500 likely voters. You can view the full results of the survey here.
The poll found that 46% support for Gendebien and 42% for Constantino, with the apparent lead falling within the margin of error. Independent candidate Christopher Schmidt is polling in the single digits, while 8% of voters remain undecided.
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The poll also highlighted key issues shaping the race. Gendebien appears to have an edge on affordability, healthcare, and improving the relationship with Canada. Meanwhile, pollsters found that Constantino leads on addressing undocumented immigrants living in New York.
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High numbers of voters indicated they have not yet made up their minds on these and other issues, suggesting both candidates still have work to do as the race heads into its final stretch.
Ron Seyb, a retired political science professor at Skidmore College, said the NY-21 race has clear national importance.
“It’s one of the districts that’s going to determine whether the Republicans continue to have a majority in the House of Representatives or the Democrats take over the House,” Seyb told NBC5 News on Friday. “I think that this this district is really in play for the first time in several election cycles.”
Seyb went on to tell NBC5 News reporter Christian Gratto that given those national implications, voter turnout will be key to all campaigns.
“How much is my vote actually going to make a difference? Well, in this race, it actually can make a difference because this is going to be, as I say, I think a pretty narrow margin,” Seyb said. “And again, the outcome is going to have real implications for the control of the House of Representatives.”
Campaign Ads factor into race perceptions among voters
Respondents were also asked whether they believed each of the candidates was running a more positive race based on their experience and plans for the district, or whether they viewed the campaign as negative, focused on attacking their opponent. A majority of respondents said they believed Gendebien is running a more positive campaign focused on the issues, while respondents said Constantino is running a more negative campaign focused on attacking his opponent.
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Gendebien, Constantino react to poll data
Blake Gendebien’s campaign issued a statement after the release of the new poll, saying in part “While Constantino chases headlines, North Country residents across party lines are moving toward Blake.”
“He’s running a reality show. I’m running to lower costs,” Constantino was quoted as saying in the release. “Republicans, independents, and Democrats are coming along because they’re tired of the circus.”
Constantino’s campaign also issued a response to the poll, calling it “another scam poll by a pollster with a long history heavily favoring Democratic candidates.”
“Anthony Constantino is winning NY-21 despite everyone in the media trying to prevent that at all costs,” a campaign spokesperson said.
Gubernatorial Race Data shows Blakeman leads Hochul
Meanwhile, data from the same poll shows Republican Bruce Blakeman leading among surveyed voters. When asked who they would vote for if the gubernatorial election were held today, 55% of respondents said they would vote for Blakeman. Meanwhile, 40% of voters said they would vote for Hochul. Five percent of people said they were unsure.
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A total of 33 questions were included in the new polling. Respondents were asked to weigh in on how well they believe President Donald Trump is doing in his second term and whether they believe New York state is on the right track, among others.
Respondent demographics and polling info
Responses from a total of 496 likely voters in NY Congressional District 21 were included in the poll, which was conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 6, 2026. Of those people surveyed, 28% identified as Democrats, while 49% identified as Republicans. Twenty-three percent identified as Independent.
When it came to which region of the district respondents came from, 27% live in Saratoga, Warren and Washington counties, while 34% came from Herkimer, Fulton, Montgomery, Oneida and Schoharie counties. The remaining 39% of respondents came from Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties.
Early voting in New York State begins Oct. 24.