Brazil’s presidential race could help decide whether the Amazon keeps functioning as a rainforest. In the New York Times, Sergio Peçanha and Ana Ionova lay out how much is at stake as right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, leads ahead of Sunday’s runoff. Brazil controls about 60% of the Amazon, and roughly 17% of the forest has already been cleared. Under Jair Bolsonaro, deforestation soared to about 4.6 million hectares in four years—equating to the destruction of four Central Parks for each day he was in office—before falling to record lows after current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rebuilt environmental enforcement.
Lula da Silva’s government is aiming for zero deforestation by 2030. Flávio Bolsonaro says he’ll end illegal deforestation by 2029 but also wants to “unlock” the region for roads, mining, ranching, and oil, and has questioned human-driven climate change. Experts warn that legal tree-cutting plus major infrastructure could push the forest toward a tipping point where it dries into savanna by 2050, reshaping South American rainfall and agriculture. For maps, data visuals, and on-the-ground voices explaining this crossroads, go read the full analysis at the New York Times.