JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The much-debated Amendment 3 for homestead property tax exemptions is falling short of the 60% threshold it would need to pass in November, according to a new poll of likely midterm election voters in Florida from the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida.
Only 50% of the 1,471 respondents indicated they would vote “yes” on the amendment titled “Increased Homestead Exemption; Lower Cap on Increases in Non-Homestead Property Assessments,” which would increase the homestead property tax exemption over time, other than those directed to schools.
READ: Full results & methodology for UNF PORL poll
Thirty percent of respondents were solidly in the “no” camp, but a notable 14% said they do not know how they will vote on the amendment.
“This appears to be another tight race that will ultimately depend upon which way last-minute undecideds swing,” explained Dr. Sean Freeder, PORL faculty director and political science professor. “Most of these (undecided) voters would need to vote yes in order to put Amendment 3 above 60%, a challenging but possible outcome.”
Interestingly, Florida voters who have lived in the state longer are more likely to oppose the amendment than those who are new to Florida.
While support is greater among registered Republicans than Democrats or Independents, it is not cleanly split across party lines. The poll found 32% of Democrats indicated a “yes” vote and 23% of Republicans would vote “no.”
And those ads you’ve been seeing either opposing or supporting Amendment 3 could have a big impact, Freeder said.
“Political science research shows that it’s easier to use messaging to persuade voters on policy more than on candidates, so the last-minute advertising by each campaign could make a big difference,” Freeder said.
Environment vs. economy
The poll also found 61% of respondents prioritized environmental protection, even if it curbed economic growth and development.
On the other hand, 26% said economic growth and development should take priority, even if the environment suffered to some extent.
A majority of registered Democrats (78%) and Independents (62%) said they most align with environmental protection over economic growth, along with a large portion of Republicans (48%).
More recent Florida transplants tend to be more in favor of economic growth and development, while those who have lived in Florida longer lean toward environmental protection.
“We find positions on issues like taxes and development versus environment are more traditionally Republican-leaning among those who have moved to Florida in the last 10 years compared to those who have lived here longer,” Freeder said. “Despite a belief by some that transplants from other states make the state more blue, this data suggests instead that newcomers may actually be driving Florida’s recent status as a solidly red state.”
Tight races
The poll also found remarkably tight races for Florida governor and the U.S. Senate seat, and Freeder said turnout will be key in those races.
But polling cannot determine how many voters will cast ballots, he said.
In the latest poll, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 2 percentage points in Florida’s governor’s race, while Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat challenger Angie Nixon by 4 points.
Donalds vs. Jolly: Where Florida’s governor candidates stand on AI, data centers and Amendment 3
The poll found 49% support Donalds and 47% support Jolly. Moody leads Nixon 49% to 45%. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 2.81 percentage points, meaning the governor’s race is within the poll’s margin of error. Five percent of respondents were undecided in the Senate race.
The results show narrower leads than the lab’s July poll, which had Donalds ahead by 5 points and Moody by 8.
“Though Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race,” Freeder said.
He said the tighter contest may reflect national political factors, including the difficulty the president’s party often faces in midterm elections.
Independent voters favor Jolly by 16 points and Nixon by 15 points, the poll found.
Respondents were asked which gubernatorial candidate they trust more on a few different issues important to Florida voters.
When it comes to data centers, 41% said they trust David Jolly more, and 37% said Byron Donalds. Respondents were roughly split on affordability and cost of living, Donalds with 42% and Jolly with 43%. More respondents expressed trust in Byron Donalds when it comes to property insurance at 43%, compared to 38% for Jolly.
Unsurprisingly, the overwhelming majority of each candidate’s supporters trust that candidate most in each of the three issue areas; however, there was some crossover in the areas of data centers and property insurance.
Seven percent of Jolly supporters trust Donalds more on insurance, and an equal percentage of Donalds supporters trust Jolly more on data centers.
The poll also asked about campaign messages in the Senate race. Twenty-five percent of respondents said Republican messaging about Nixon’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made them less likely to vote for her; 12% said it made them more likely, while 55% said it made no difference.
Asked about Democratic messaging concerning a Hope Florida grand jury report and Moody, 30% said it made them less likely to vote for Moody, 9% said more likely and 53% said it made no difference. Among independent voters, 38% said the messaging made them less likely to vote for Moody.
“Independents favor Nixon by 15 points, and also appear to be more concerned about Moody’s ties to Hope Florida than Nixon’s ties to socialism,” Freeder said. “Given the anti-incumbent mood of swing voters, both Donalds and Moody’s success depends upon Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats in terms of turnout and enthusiasm.”
The poll was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish from Oct. 12 to 19. The lab said it weighted results to reflect Florida’s electorate and that estimates for smaller groups have larger margins of error.
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