Scientists say the scorching summer Europe just emerged from may have been its deadliest this century. Two new studies in the journal Nature Health estimate that the heat killed more than 50,000 people in 854 cities and towns across 30 European countries—roughly triple the number that would be expected in a world without human-driven warming. Using climate models and local data on demographics, health care access, and socioeconomic conditions, researchers calculated deaths tied not just to heatstroke but also to heart and lung problems worsened by extreme temperatures, the New York Times reports.
The total far exceeds the estimated tolls from 2003 and 2022, previously Europe’s worst heat summers. Scientists link the surge to persistent heat domes supercharged by greenhouse gas emissions and say the sharp rise can’t be explained by population growth alone. Western Europe had its hottest summer on record, per CNN. Temperatures ran about 5.2 degrees above the 1991-2020 average, and some cities had temperatures more than 21 degrees higher than usual. “Much of Western and Northern Europe, our infrastructure is just not designed to cope with the sort of temperatures that we are seeing now because of the effects of human-caused warming,” said lead author Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, per the AP.
Italy, France, Spain, and Germany had the most deaths. More than half of the people who died were 85 or older, but more than 800 people between 20 and 44 were killed, as well. A new UN report has warned the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels has now passed the world by. Trump administration policies are blamed for contributing to the estimate. “We’re well off-track to limit the worst consequences of climate change, and governments need to realize that without faster action and coordination, things will only get worse,” Barnes said.