The Department of Government and Justice Studies brought F. Gregory Gause III and Jillian Schwedler to speak at Belk Library Thursday about the geopolitical and domestic effects of the Iran War on the broader Middle East region.
Gause is a professor in the Department of International Affairs at Texas A&M University and specializes in Middle Eastern and Islamic studies. Schwedler is a professor of political science from the Hunter City University of New York and specializes in ethnography and social movements.
Gause said the war in Iran is “very unlikely to change any of the fundamentals of the conflict in the Middle East,” despite efforts by Israel and the Trump administration to bring about regime change in Tehran, Iran’s capital. The conflict may have even strengthened the Iranian government’s ability to survive, Gause said, while leaving questions about Palestine and broader regional instability unresolved.
“I don’t think that’s going to happen and I don’t think much else is going to change in the Middle East as a result of this conflict,” Gause said.
Gause said Iran has maintained its government despite the initial missile strikes on leadership that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the former Supreme Leader of Iran. This makes regime change less likely than it might have been before the war began.
“I would argue that Iran’s performance, its ability to sustain the regime even after the decapitation of its leadership in that first strike on February 28th has given this regime a new lease on life,” Gause said. “Still has plenty of problems, but we are first further away from regime change in Iran than we might have been if this war hadn’t started.”
The conflict is also unlikely to resolve the “Palestinian issue,” which Gause described as a central and enduring source of regional tension. He said weakening Iran, a key regional supporter of the Palestinians, does not address the underlying demands for Palestinian self-determination and national identity.
“The ‘Palestine issue’ is not going away. That’s not changing. This war is not solving the ‘Palestine issue.’ It’s not solving the issue of Palestinian self-determination and Palestinian nationalism,” Gause said. “In fact, in many ways, it was launched on the Israeli side in an effort to not have to deal with the Palestinian question by trying to remove the Palestinians’ most important regional supporter.”
Gause placed the war, which began with an Israeli-American attack on Iran in February, within a broader regional crisis that began with the Hamas attack on Israel Oct. 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli retaliation in Gaza. The crisis expanded through the mobilization of Iran’s regional proxy groups and now, direct confrontations between Iran and Israel.
The consequences of the wider crisis extend beyond regional governments and military confrontations, affecting public dissent and protest movements. Schwedler said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict beginning in October 2023 prompted major mobilizations on United States college campuses in support of Palestinian sovereignty.
Within the Middle East, however, large-scale anti-war demonstrations in response to the war in Iran and Lebanon have not happened.
“And part of the reason I think we don’t see that has to do with, you know, the costs of protests are much higher with surveillance technology, monitoring, facial recognition, etc. across the region,” Gause said.
Schwedler also said the consequences of political dissent under a repressive government can extend far beyond individual protesters. Activists may face imprisonment, torture, harassment and pressure directed at their relatives.
“It’s people expressing dissent and the repression ranges from, you know, death in imprisonment, torture, to harassment of you and your family. For example, if you won’t stop protesting, they might say, ‘Okay, nobody in your family is going to get into college or get a job,’” Schwedler said.
Schwedler said economic crises, wars involving the United States, and Israeli military campaigns in the West Bank and Gaza have historically prompted mass demonstrations across the region.
“Why do people protest? Economic crises, wars, US wars in the region, Israeli campaigns into the West Bank and Gaza always bring massive protests,” Schwedler said. “And, but again, we don’t see an anti-war protest against what’s happening now in Iran and Lebanon.”