The survey found Hochul leading Blakeman 54% to 40% among likely New York voters, compared with a 50% to 41% advantage noted in Siena’s September polling.

Mamdani’s favorability rating among city voters climbed to 69%, up from 60% last month, while the share viewing him unfavorably fell from 31% to 28%. Statewide, the mayor’s favorability rating was little changed at 47% favorable and 43% unfavorable, compared with 46% to 44% in September.

For the first time in Siena polling during her five years as governor, a majority of likely voters also viewed Hochul favorably. Her favorability rating reached 51%, up from 48% last month, while 45% viewed her unfavorably. Her job approval rating also rose to 51%, compared with 48% in September.

“Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. 

Hochul led Blakeman 67% to 23% in NYC, while the two were nearly tied in the downstate suburbs, where Hochul held a 49% to 47% advantage, and upstate, where she led 49% to 48%.

Siena also found Hochul leading Blakeman 51% to 40% among independents, compared with a 44% to 39% advantage for Blakeman among independents and others in September.

A separate Marist University poll released Wednesday also found Hochul ahead statewide, leading Blakeman 53% to 42% among likely voters. But Marist showed Blakeman leading 49% to 39% among independents, in contrast with Siena’s advantage for Hochul. 

An Oct. 21 Quinnipiac University poll also found Blakeman ahead among independents, 51% to 44%, while putting Hochul ahead by 14 points statewide.

Blakeman lashed out at the Siena and Marist polls Wednesday, accusing the pollsters of trying to discourage Republican turnout.

“Today’s polls are nothing more than voter suppression tactics designed to discourage Republicans and manipulate the outcome of this election,” Blakeman said in a statement.

His campaign pointed to the conflicting independent-voter findings and differences in the polls’ demographic makeup, while claiming its own internal surveys showed a “neck-and-neck race.” The statement did not provide figures from those surveys or evidence that either poll was designed to suppress turnout.

Marist also painted a less favorable picture of Hochul than Siena, finding that 41% of likely voters viewed the governor favorably, compared with 51% who viewed her unfavorably.

The Siena survey also found that 68% of likely voters expected Hochul to win reelection, compared with 23% who expected Blakeman to prevail.

“Even Republicans are not strongly convinced their candidate will win, as 49% think Blakeman will win but 40% of GOP voters say that Hochul will win re-election,” Greenberg said.

Blakeman’s favorability rating stood at 39% favorable and 40% unfavorable, compared with 35% and 34%, respectively, last month. The share of voters who had not formed an opinion of him dropped from 31% to 21%.

Despite Hochul’s lead, neither candidate convinced a majority of voters that they would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers. Asked which candidate would do so, 30% chose Hochul, 27% picked Blakeman and 35% said neither.

Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman made a campaign stop in Brooklyn on Saturday, October 24, 2026.Photo by Lloyd Mitchell
Trump and Mamdani on the campaign trail

Mamdani’s stronger standing in NYC comes as Blakeman has repeatedly sought to tie Hochul to the democratic socialist mayor, while the governor’s campaign has focused heavily on Blakeman’s relationship with President Donald Trump, who remains deeply unpopular with New York voters.

As part of its closing argument, Hochul’s campaign, on Tuesday, began airing three new attack ads as part of a multimillion-dollar statewide push, accusing the Republican of backing Medicaid cuts, higher health insurance costs and aggressive immigration enforcement.

For the second straight month, Siena polling found voters more likely to view Trump’s endorsement as a liability for Blakeman than Mamdani’s endorsement as a liability for Hochul.

In Wednesday’s survey, 48% said Trump’s endorsement had been a negative for Blakeman’s campaign, compared with 28% who viewed it positively. Mamdani’s endorsement, meanwhile, was seen as a positive for Hochul by 45% and a negative by 30%.

The questions measured voters’ perceptions of how the endorsements affected the campaigns, rather than whether either endorsement would change their own vote.

Trump remained unpopular statewide, with 61% viewing him unfavorably and 36% favorably.

The poll also found Democratic incumbents holding double-digit leads in New York’s other statewide contests. Attorney General Letitia James led Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%, while state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli led Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%.

Democrats also led Republicans 54% to 39% on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they would support for the U.S. House without naming specific candidates. That compares with a 51% to 40% Democratic advantage in September.

Siena surveyed 807 likely New York voters from Oct. 19 through 22. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Marist surveyed 1,448 registered voters from Oct. 22 through 25, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points among likely voters.

This story was updated at 10:30 a.m.