Nate Silver Reveals Ominous Sign for MAGA in Early Voting

Democrats are turning out in greater numbers than Republicans in early voting.

Pollster Nate Silver has revealed the glaring red sign that the Republican Party is headed towards disaster this Election Day.

Silver, who rose to fame as one of the few pollsters to predict a Donald Trump win in 2016, said early voting trends show Democrats are turning out in much larger numbers than Republicans.

“And so far in early voting data, you have seen irregular Democratic voters turn out, but not Republicans,” Silver explained on the Shane Smith Has Questions Podcast. “So they need to get their voters to the polls to take advantage of the red territory in the map.”

nate silver

Nate Silver, 48, says there are red flags for Republicans.

Shane Smith Has Questions Podcast/YouTube

He added, “I don’t think anybody’s expecting them to save the House unless there’s a gigantic polling error and everyone’s, and the instrumentation’s totally wrong.”

However, he said that “Democrats can’t take anything for granted in the Senate.”

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Silver, 48, also explained that polls have previously missed Trump voters because they are considered low-propensity voters who only turn out for Trump, so they are hard to measure as a voting bloc.

“So, white working class voters, certain Hispanic voters… a lot of like young Hispanic men, young Black men, young Asian men, voted for Trump in ‘24,” he explained. “They may have been missed by pollsters.”

“Will they vote for like a Ken Paxton in Texas or Roger Marshall in Kansas? History would say maybe not,” he added.

“A lot of it comes down to turnout, in particular to Republican turnout,” Silver continued. “I think we have a good sense from the history of Democratic enthusiasm in these midterms, when they even had an okay midterm in 2022.”

Early voting data show Americans are showing up in droves ahead of next week’s midterm election.

More than 43 million voters have cast ballots so far, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. By comparison, during the 2022 midterm cycle, around 46 million Americans voted during the entire early voting window.

Black and Hispanic voters have participated at high levels, blocs that had typically been reliably Democratic but turned out for Trump in the previous election.

Trump

Trump has told his supporters to just vote as if he is on the ballot.

When looking at data broken down by party affiliation, Democrats have already turned out, notably in key states they are eyeing to hold onto or flip blue.

Democratic enthusiasm has been particularly strong in Texas and Georgia, where Democratic voters have slightly higher turnout among infrequent voters.

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