BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) – The final poll before Election Day shows Amanda Janoo ahead of Phil Scott in Vermont’s race for governor.
Of likely voters polled, 51% say they have or will vote for Janoo, while 43% want Scott to return for a record-setting sixth term. Just over 1,200 people took part in the poll, which was conducted by the UNH Survey Center.
“All the indications are that Amanda Janoo has run an effective campaign,” said Matt Dickinson, a Middlebury College political science professor.
Dickinson said the new UNH polling numbers reveal just how close this contest could be between political newcomer Janoo and the incumbent Scott.
If the Democrat pulls off the win, it would be historic.
“We haven’t seen an incumbent governor defeated since 1962,” Dickinson said.
The poll shows affordability and high taxes are top concerns for Vermonters. They are two issues Scott has campaigned on and made his top priorities for years. But Dickinson said the Republican’s time in office could be partly the reason Janoo pulled ahead by 8 points.
“Voters don’t feel they’ve been solved,” Dickinson said. “The finger is getting pointed at Phil Scott. At least according to the polls, enough voters are considering an alternative in that top spot.”
But Scott, commonly named the most popular governor in the country, still gets high marks here.
“His approval ratings in this poll are still quite high. People like Phil Scott,” Dickinson said.
But he said people are unhappy with policies coming out of Montpelier.
Polls vary. Dickinson said they’re just a snapshot in time, and how they’re conducted makes a difference, too.
Reporter Darren Perron: The governor said he doesn’t put much faith in UNH polling, saying, quote, ‘It’s been a flawed poll my entire political life. They never get it right.’ What do you say to that?
Matt Dickinson: Well, he’s right, historically the UNH poll has overestimated vote totals for Scott’s opponents in the last two gubernatorial races and have done so by huge margins… It may be that UNH altered their polling methodology here and they’re getting it right. But you can understand why Scott wants to downplay these results.
Dickinson said who is surveyed also affects polling results. This new poll skews younger.
“Younger voters are disproportionately supporting Janoo, so depending on your assumption on younger voters, you come to different projections on who’s gonna win this race,” Dickinson said.
Dickinson said this latest poll will motivate both campaigns to double down on their efforts to bring out their bases and to reach those persuadable voters who haven’t already voted.
The previous poll released on Sept. 24 showed Janoo ahead by six points at 49% to 43%.
Among the other recent surveys, a Vermont Public poll showed Scott leading by 10 points, 42% to 32%.
And the latest poll from State Navigate showed Scott ahead by just three points, 49% to 46%.
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