Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, November 2, 2026.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
S&P 500 futures turned red after an initial gain on Tuesday evening as traders speculated that Democrats were headed for majority control in the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate as 2026 U.S. midterm elections polls began closing nationwide.
Futures tied to the broad market index traded 0.6% lower after opening the evening session higher, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.5%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 252 points, or 0.5%.
As equity futures fell into the red, Treasury yields moved lower, with the 10-year Treasury note yield dropping more than 3 basis points to 4.915%. Futures on the Cboe Volatility Index fear gauge increased, rising above 20.
Kalshi odds for Democratic Senate control increased to around 90%, showing traders were increasingly betting on a big night for Democrats. Odds for Democratic control of the House, which was largely expected, jumped to 97% for Democrats.
To be sure, the polls have yet to fully close in all states, and CNBC has not called any races. Election nights have often shown wild swings in markets. Many investors also believe any market move from this election would be short lived.
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S&P 500 futures, intraday
If Democrats were able to secure a sizable majority in the Senate — the so-called blue wave scenario — the market — especially stocks related to the artificial intelligence buildout — could come under pressure on Wednesday, according to some on Wall Street. Investors fear a big Democratic win could mean more restrictions on data centers nationwide. AI-linked stocks have already pulled back in recent weeks on concern about a slowing pace in data-center spending.
AMD shares initially surged double digits in post-market action after the company, a key player in the AI trade, reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that blew past analyst expectations. The stock was last up about 4% as stock market futures gave up their gains. Other chip stocks, which were initially higher in sympathy with AMD, fell into the red as well.
“History tells you in the first few days after election, there’s this need to digest what just happened,” said Philip Blancato, Osaic chief market strategist. “In that scenario of a Democratic sweep when there’s less funding for AI or less support for data centers specifically, I think the rest of the market will do quite well because of how strong earnings have been.”
On the overall market, investors believe a blue wave would also be a headwind as it likely rules out any more business-friendly policies like tax breaks and possibly increases scrutiny on industries like banking.
Big Tech shares Microsoft and Amazon were trading lower. Renewable shares like solar stocks traded higher in the post market on speculation a Democratic majority in Congress would halt policies by President Donald Trump taken against the industry. The Invesco Solar ETF was up 3.5% in extended trading.
The AI trade recovered a bit during Tuesday’s session with the Nasdaq Composite rising nearly 1%, bolstered by gains in chipmakers. The S&P 500 also finished higher with a 0.3% climb, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed more than 200 points, or 0.5%, lower.