A Middle East policy expert argued that high voter turnout could challenge coalition building following Israel’s elections at a Georgetown University event Nov. 2.
Shira Efron, distinguished chair for Israel policy at Middle East research organization RAND, analyzed the outcomes of Israel’s Oct. 27 elections, which have not resulted in a parliamentary majority. Efron contended that while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost popularity, his core support — and a potential path to retaining the government — remains.
Efron said Israeli citizens are disillusioned by rising political uncertainty.
“We’re all exhausted,” Efron said at the event. “It’s very difficult because if we look at the last three years, obviously Israel has been at war on multiple fronts.”
“There’s the fallout from the elections, a disappointment, and different framing on both sides, and an objective difficulty to separate the signal from the noise,” Efron added.
Israel is currently involved in the latest Israel-Hamas war and in the Iran war. Israel is also involved in conflicts in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria.
In Israel’s parliamentary system, a party needs 61 seats out of 120 in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, to form a government and choose a prime minister. In the Oct. 27 elections, Netanyahu saw his coalition win 53 seats, failing to secure the necessary majority and losing 15 seats to other parties.
Efron said the results exemplify Netanyahu’s controversial standing with the Israeli public.
“They voted against the agenda of this government, whether you like it or not, and so there’s no way of framing this as Netanyahu winning,” Efron said.
“However, if we thought that these elections were sort of a referendum, and on Netanyahu, you can see that at least his core base has not left him,” Efron added.
While Netanyahu has positioned himself as a strong leader who can guarantee Israel’s security in the region, some critics hold his government responsible for increased corruption and democratic backsliding. Netanyahu is currently on trial in Jerusalem for alleged corruption and bribery.
Although Netanyahu failed to earn the required seats to form a coalition, parties aligned with Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the main opposing coalition, won just 48 seats. The opposition bloc consists of a diverse coalition of a few Zionist parties including Yashar, B’Yachad, the Democrats and Yisrael Beyteinu, which lean more moderate than Netanyahu’s Likud party.
Efron said partnering with the Arab parties — Ra’am and the Joint List, a coalition of the Ta’al, Hadash and Balad parties — poses difficulties for Eisenkot’s bloc due to their diverse beliefs, including on Islamic theology and cooperation with Zionist parties.
Ra’am, an Islamist conservative party, won eight seats. The Joint List, which opposes the Israel-Hamas war and the existence of Israel as a Jewish state, won 11 seats.
Efron said lingering tensions surrounding Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attacks on Israel played a role in electoral outcomes. The Oct. 7 attacks resulted in the death of approximately 1,200 people and the abduction of about 250 people. The Israeli military’s counteroffensive has led to the deaths of 74,000 Palestinians and displaced at least 80% of the population in Gaza.
Efron said these tensions may strengthen Netanyahu’s bargaining position because the opposition bloc refuses to cooperate with Arab parties.
“I say this with great sadness,” Efron said. “I think the controlling narrative is that ‘You gave us a promise not to rely on the Arabs’ — and we’re not racist, but after Oct. 7, how can you?’”
“Therefore, the alternative is to go for a unity government with Netanyahu,” Efron added.
Likud leadership has proposed a unity government led by Netanyahu. Eisenkot has pledged to not serve under Netanyahu.
Internationally, the election has been viewed as a chance to reduce Middle East tensions, although researchers say the chances for conflict remain similar regardless of the election’s outcome.
A growing body of scholars, advocates and nations — including the leading International Association of Genocide Scholars and a United Nations commission — have accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. Israel has consistently denied these claims, characterizing such claims as antisemitic or anti-Israel — often with the defense of the United States.
Efron said the disputed election results make it more difficult for Israel to improve its global reputation.
“For Israel, at least to start digging out of its place, it would have to elect a new government,” Efron said. “With what’s happening now and not being clear if there’s a new government, I think that it does not bode very well for Israel in the near term emerging from its isolation at the moment.”