Everyday investors could pour a record $250 million into Anthropic shares on its first trading day, according to Vanda Research.
The estimate, which would be more than double the $118 million in net retail buying the first day of SpaceX’s June listing, hinges on a surge in derivatives trading tied to Anthropic’s yet-to-be listed shares on crypto exchange Hyperliquid.
Trading volume in this Anthropic-linked instrument reached a record $270 million on Tuesday, nearly triple last week’s daily volumes, according to Vanda strategist Viraj Patel.
Vanda found that retail stock trading activity on the opening days of recent IPOs, including SpaceX, was roughly five times the peak daily trading volume in their pre-IPO derivatives. Applied to Anthropic, the assessment would suggest $250 million in net buying on its listing day planned for next week.
The projection carries considerable uncertainty. The derivatives trading represents an indirect gauge of investor enthusiasm, and patterns from previous IPOs may not repeat.
Anthropic is targeting a valuation of $1.4 trillion, below the $2 trillion previously discussed, as the AI industry has faced headwinds from rising borrowing costs, hedge fund deleveraging, and political backlash over data center construction.